The forecast for the maize harvest in the United States has been revised upwards by the International Grains Council (IGC). This is somewhat striking after the heavy summer storm at the beginning of August, which destroyed a lot of plots. The global harvest is expected to reach a record level, while less maize is expected in the European Union.
The IGC expects that 384,2 million tons of grain corn will be harvested in the United States. That is 3,4 million tons more than predicted in July. Compared to last year, an increase of 38,3 million tons (or an increase of 11,1%) is visible. According to the IGC, the record of the 2016/2017 season is only missed by 600.000 tons. The organization does describe that 3,3 million hectares in Iowa are serious storm damage has incurred.
Quality clearly less
This is reflected in the USDA's assessment of corn fields in this state. Only 45% are classified in the 'good' or 'very good' categories. Before the storm, that percentage was 24 percentage points higher. For the entire country, 62% of the maize plots fall into 1 of those 2 classes. Three weeks ago that was still 71%. Rabobank expects the summer storm to cause losses of approximately 10 million tons, giving it a harvest of 381 million tons. A difference of 3 million tons compared to the IGC's expectations.
The price on the CBoT in Chicago has risen by more than 8% since the summer storm to $3,47 per bushel. Rabobank expects the quotation in the fourth quarter of 2020 to be around $3,45 per bushel (approximately €115 per tonne). The bank now predicts a price of $2021 per bushel for the first quarter of 3,65, although it expects a decline after that.
Record is expected worldwide
A record harvest of grain maize is expected worldwide: 1,16 billion tons. That is an increase of 4% compared to last season (or 45 million tons more). In July the forecast was still approximately 2 million tons lower. More corn is expected, especially in Brazil. Compared to last season, an increase of 4,1% is visible, resulting in a total of 106,3 million tons. On the other hand, the IGC expects less corn in the European Union. The organization lowers the forecast by 900.000 tons to 69,2 million tons. This is still more than last year's 68,1 million tons. The reduction is mainly due to problems with drought in France and Romania.
Not only the yield is likely to break a record, because a record is also expected in consumption. The IGC estimates a demand of 1,17 million tons. That is 33 million tons more than last season (+2,9%). It is expected that 703 million tonnes of this will go to the animal feed industry. A plus of 19 million tons. Particularly from China additional demand is expected now that outbreaks of African swine fever are subsiding. The IGC believes that this will cause the country to demand 5 million tons more, bringing the total to 182 million tons. The highest demand in 13 years is expected from the American animal feed industry: 147,5 million tons.