Drought manifests itself in European yield estimates

Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, but also parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Luxembourg are experiencing (extreme) drought. The European Union's MARS bulletin shows that this is negatively reflected in yield expectations. For example, the harvest forecast for sugar beet in the European Union has decreased (compared to the previous bulletin) to 73 tons per hectare. That is about 2,1% lower than the 5-year average.

A yield of 83,5 tons per hectare is expected for the Netherlands. That is 0,5% higher than the 5-year average, but 0,5% lower than last year. The sugar beet yield in Belgium is also suffering from the drought, because the expected yield (83 tons per hectare) is 2,3% below the multi-year average and 5,9% lower than last year. In France, a yield of 81,6 tons per hectare is expected: -6,2% compared to the average and -3,7% compared to last year.

Cutting maize yields, grain maize higher
The expected yield of silage maize in Europe is also below the 5-year average. According to the European Commission, the harvest is 40 tons per hectare, a decrease of 0,4% compared to the average. The harvest, on the other hand, is 2% higher than last year. The Netherlands has a harvest of 41,5 tons per hectare, which is equal to the average of the past 5 years. It is 2,9% lower than last year. The highest yield is expected in Italy: 52,9 tons per hectare.

Harvest expectations for grain maize are more positive. The yield is expected to be 7,8 tons per hectare, which is 3,3% above the multi-year average. The highest yield comes from Spain, with 11,8 tons per hectare. This is a plus of 2,2% compared to the 5-year average. Poland also presents a positive picture: the yield, at 6,6 tons per hectare, is well above last year (+19). It is clearly visible that Bulgaria and Romania have suffered significant losses in this area due to the drought. The yields there are 11% and 13% lower, respectively, than the 5-year average.

Potato harvest slightly higher
The expectations for the potato harvest in the European Union this month are also slightly better than in the August bulletin. That report assumed a yield of 32,6 tons, while it is now 32,8 tons. That is 1,3% above the 5-year average. The Netherlands records a yield of 42,8 tons per hectare, which is 1,8% above last year's level and the average. In Poland, conditions are good and the potato harvest is expected to be 17% higher than last year, at 25 tons per hectare.

Spain makes a significant reduction and reaches 30,1 tons per hectare. This is 4,4% lower than the average and 9% lower than last year. The French plots are also suffering from the drought. The yield is expected to be 40,5 tons per hectare, a decrease of 1,9% compared to the average and 2,3% less than last season. For France, this is the third year in which yields have been significantly reduced due to drought. For Germany, the potato yield is expected to be 41,4 tons per hectare (+6,2% compared to last year) and in Belgium a yield of 42,2 tons per hectare is expected (+3,1% compared to last year). The German potato harvest is 0,9% below the 5-year average.

Significant increases in spring barley
Spring barley paints the most positive picture of all crops. The European harvest estimate is 4,38 tons per hectare. This is 8,9% above the 5-year average and 6,1% higher than last season. Especially in Spain, the yield shows a strong plus: +23% compared to the 5-year average and +32% compared to last season. In the Netherlands, the yield is expected to be 6,6 tons per hectare, which is 2,6% above the multi-year average.

Temperatures are again expected to be above average in the coming period, which leaves the question of how smoothly the main harvest of potatoes, for example, will proceed. The ground is hard in many regions and precipitation is not planned for the time being. It remains to be seen to what extent expectations come close to reality.

The entire MARS bulletin can be viewed here.