The amount of rapeseed imported into the EU-28 is increasing every season, according to a forecast by the International Grains Council. This is striking, because the demand is smaller this season as a result of the corona crisis. In addition, the listing on the Matif in Paris is a significant step up. What's the reason for that?
The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts that the EU-28 will see more in the coming months rapeseed imports, up to a total of 5,8 million tons this season. That is considerably more than the 5 million tons of last season and the 4,5 million tons of the previous season. For next season, it expects the European Union to import 5,7 million tons of rapeseed, which is still significantly more than average. Global imports are estimated at 2020 million tons for 2021/15,5. This means that the European Union accounts for more than 30% of global consumption.
Consumption at rock bottom
The main supplier is Canada. For the coming season, the country is expected to export 10 million tons worldwide, although that is 300.000 tons less than this year. For Ukraine, the second most important export country, experts expect a similar decrease of up to 1 million tons. This is mainly due to a disappointing harvest. On the other hand, Australia is expected to export 2,3 tons more, resulting in total exports of 500.000 million tons. The reason? An expected production increase to 2,2 million tons. Last year the harvest was significantly lower due to the drought and heat.
While global trade in rapeseed is increasing, consumption this year is falling to the lowest level in more than 3 years. The IGC expects consumption of 70,3 million tons, while last season it was 73 million tons. In the EU-28 a decrease of 2,4 million tonnes is expected, bringing the total to 22,5 million tonnes. The main cause of this drop in demand is the current corona crisis, although the organization expects demand to recover in 2020/2021 when the virus fades into the background.
Price takes steps upwards
The quotation for rapeseed on the Matif in Paris has taken significant steps upwards in recent days. While the quotation on September 29 was €380,75 per tonne, the closing position on October 2 was €389,75 per tonne. This has largely to do with the price increases on the CBoT in Chicago due to a report from the USDA. This revealed that stocks in the country are considerably smaller than expected. How is that possible? Exports to China were considerably larger than export statistics showed.
Moreover, it was not only the rapeseed quotation that showed an increase. The wheat quotation also took a significant step upwards and now stands at €196,75 per tonne. In addition to the smaller stocks, the Small Grains Report from the US Department of Agriculture also plays a major role here. It states that the wheat acreage and wheat production in the United States in the 2020 season are smaller than expected.