The drought has given way to wet conditions. This is also reflected in the MARS report of the European Commission. The harvest has been delayed in many countries and winter crop sowing cannot take place at the desired time everywhere. What are the consequences for the harvest forecasts of, among other things, silage maize and grain maize?
The program warm and dry weather continued into the first 3 weeks of September, making September 2020 the warmest September month ever recorded. Then things changed again. Rain, rain and more rain awaited the farmers. This has caused harvest problems in many European countries, but the sowing of winter crops has also been delayed due to the wet soils.
Both less silage maize and grain maize
The yields of silage maize and grain maize are below the 5-year average. According to the European Commission, the grain maize harvest amounts to 7,42 tons per hectare, 2,1% less than the multi-year average of 7,59 tons. Compared to last season, a decrease of 6,1% is even visible. The highest yields are achieved in Spain and Italy, 11,8 tons and 10,8 tons per hectare respectively. These countries therefore show a result above the multi-year average. In the Netherlands, a yield of 10 tons can be expected, which is 2,3% higher than the 5-year average and 2,6% above the level of last season.
The silage maize harvest in Europe is reported to be 40 tonnes per hectare, a decrease of 0,2% compared to the average. On the other hand, the yield is 2,7% higher than last year. A harvest of 41,5 tons per hectare is expected for the Netherlands, a decrease of 2,9% compared to the previous season and exactly equal to the long-term average. Poland is striking. That country scores particularly high compared to the other countries in Europe: 42,8 tonnes per hectare. This is 5,5% higher than last season, but still 1,5% lower than the average.
The fact that less corn is expected again also affects the corn quotation. The Matif in Paris is now quoted at €196,50 per tonne, a quotation that is more than €27 per tonne higher than the 5-year average. This image is also visible at the CBoT in Chicago. There, the corn price at the beginning of week 44 is $4,17 per bushel, while the average is $3,74 per bushel.
More potatoes expected
While less silage maize and grain maize is expected, the European Commission actually foresees more potatoes. The yield is estimated at 32,6 tonnes per hectare, an increase of 0,4% compared to the 5-year average and an increase of 1,6% compared to last season. By far the highest hectare yield is expected for the Netherlands, namely 42,4 tons per hectare. This is 1% higher than last year and the multi-year average. In Spain and Italy the yield is significantly lower than in previous years, mainly due to drought. The harvest there is 4,8% and 2,1% lower, respectively, than the multi-year average.
Also the sugar beet yield is lower. The MARS report assumes a yield of 72,5 tonnes per hectare, a decrease of 2,8% compared to the 5-year average and a decrease of 1,9% compared to last year. The decrease is partly due to the dry conditions of last summer and viruses.
Sowing winter crops
The weather conditions not only prevented the clearing work, but also prevented the sowing of winter crops in many areas. For example, France, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine have experienced problems with the sowing of winter rapeseed due to drought. In contrast, the conditions in Germany, Poland, Denmark and the Baltic States were perfect when sowing. The sowing of other winter grains has also been delayed due to the extreme drought and later too wet conditions.