The acreage of rapeseed in the European Union has been decreasing for years, which means that the total yield is also falling. Nevertheless, the EU-27 (including the United Kingdom) did not import more rapeseed in the first months of 2020. Demand therefore seems to decrease with the acreage.
The EU-27 and the United Kingdom imported approximately 4 million tonnes of oilseed rape in the first 2020 months of the 2021/2,1 season. This is a decrease of 24% compared to the same period last season. On the other hand, it is 34% more than in the 2018/2019 season. This fluctuation in the figures can be easily explained. In the 2019/2020 marketing season, almost 15% less rapeseed was harvested than in the previous season. In order to be able to reflect consumption needs, significantly more rapeseed had to be imported last season than in the previous year.
Less demand
However, insiders do not expect this sentiment to continue in the current season. Although the rapeseed harvest in the EU-27 and the United Kingdom is indeed smaller than in the previous year (-1%), the demand for rapeseed oil for, among other things, is also increasing the production of biodiesel. In short: there is less rapeseed available, but the consumption requirement is also lower. Europe therefore needs to import less to meet that need.
The International Grains Council (IGC) also announced last month that it expected lower consumption needs. According to the authority, global consumption amounts to 70,3 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared to last season. A decrease of 28 million tons is expected for the EU-2,4, which is expected to bring the consumption requirement to 22,5 million tons. The IGC is, however, much more positive when it comes to import needs. According to analysts, the EU-28 will import more rapeseed in the coming months, up to a total of 5,8 million tons.
Changes in trade flows
Not only is the reduction in the import volume by the EU-27 striking, the trade flows are also significantly different this season. Although this season saw the majority of imports coming from Ukraine, imports from that country fell by as much as 33%. This is mainly because the harvests in that country are disappointing due to drought. The gap is partly filled by Canadian rapeseed. In the first 4 months of 2020, approximately 36% more rapeseed came from there than in 2019/2020.