More wheat, but what does the acreage do?

The companies that Boerenbusiness spoke, all are seeing more seed sales this fall. The cause is twofold. More winter wheat has gone into the ground, but more has also been sown per hectare. Especially when sown under wetter conditions, in combination with spading. Instead of 180 to 200 kilos, 240 to 250 kilos per hectare are quickly sown.

Why do arable farmers choose winter wheat? There are 3 important reasons for this:

• The relatively high price level gives growers confidence.
• Spring wheat crops were disappointing this year. Winter wheat is preferred.
• Creating calm in the construction plan and sometimes more space.

Potato replacement uncertain
A decrease in the acreage for ware potatoes is not mentioned. It is possible that the growers will indeed opt for fewer potatoes in 2021, but that is far from certain. Contracting has yet to start, the future is impossible to predict and growers are not quick to tinker with their main crop. Moreover, the construction plan is not 100% complete at most companies. If more wheat is sown, this is usually replaced by spring wheat, barley or another crop. A few remove beets from the crop plan or grow fewer onions.

The wheat price may trade above €200 per tonne on the Paris futures market – and €2021 on September 188 – but this is still not a fat pot. The physical quotations meanwhile are between €204 and €205 per tonne. Those who are now committing wheat for the 2021 harvest can expect prices that are $15 to $20 below the September 21 futures contract. Opting for wheat now is certainly not a financially profitable choice, but in particular a means to limit possible worse. Because the situation is linked to uncertainties, arable farmers are not already choosing to take action now. Moreover, it is still too uncertain how processors implement their strategy.

Winter- replaces summer grain
"In Zeeland we clearly see a split between arable farmers on irrigable and non-irrigable clay soil," explains Bram de Visser of CZAV. "The growers who cannot irrigate have had 3 very moderate to poor harvests for both onions and potatoes. It is not possible to expand these crops on that soil, which means that wheat is more popular. expansion of the onion area is on the agenda."

De Visser does not dare to mention expansion percentages. "If everyone sows only 5% more, then you already have a total area shift. After all, wheat is a large crop. The extra winter wheat will probably be at the expense of the summer wheat area. This is really an occasional product. The barley market is – because of the lesser Malting barley market – not so positive. That's why the focus is not here. This applies to both summer and winter barley. If wheat can be sown under good conditions, growers will do that."

Benefits of winter barley
Aart den Bakker, Sales Manager at Agrifirm, sees the opposite: "This autumn 15% more winter malting barley was sown. The growth is significant and the new variety Pixel is especially popular. The malting barley market is slightly less favourable, there is still make a premium. The growers deliberately sow winter barley for the benefits: The land is free early for good green manure cultivation, there is harvest security and distribution. This expansion may mean that there will be less spring barley, but it is still too early to to make predictions about that. In the spring, the summer brewing barley can expand somewhat, at the expense of other crops."

Based on the amount of seed sold, Den Bakker estimates that the winter wheat area will increase by 10%. "This brings us close to the level of 2019." A major turnaround in the construction plan is not yet noticeable. Agrifirm sees the growth in winter wheat in all its areas of activity, with the current price level certainly having a stimulating effect.

Seed sales doubled
In Noord-Holland, Jeroen de Schutter, general manager at CAV Agrotheek, talks about very different percentages: "We more than doubled the sales of winter wheat sowing seed. That can be explained, because sales were limited last autumn. It was huge then. wet, which meant that it was not possible to sow. In March it became dry and it remained dry. The spring wheat and barley performed below average. Arable farmers are therefore more keen to sow winter wheat now. I estimate that in the northern part of North Holland, acreage increases by up to 30%."

According to De Schutter, it is important for arable farmers in North Holland to give their cropping plan and soil peace of mind with more wheat. The wheat price rally came at the right time and gave an extra push. As an alternative to winter wheat, CAV Agrotheek offers winter field beans. Especially if this protein-rich crop can be sold for human consumption, the price competes with that of a good wheat. The acreage will therefore also increase in the coming season.

According to the companies, there is no shortage of seed, despite what was sometimes claimed in the sector. Suppliers do not build up huge stocks, but disinfect the parties when there is a demand for this. However, there is a switch to a basic range of varieties and new varieties are sold out.

Area below average
In 2020 shrank the wheat acreage grew by 9,5%, while it grew by almost 9% a year earlier. A shift in favor of summer grain was evident as a result of the wet autumn. A stable decline in the acreage has been noticeable since 2015. With only 92.540 hectares, 2020 was an absolute low. In 2008, 142.000 hectares of winter wheat were grown in our country. If we assume a 10% increase in the acreage, the surface will be 2021 hectares in 101.800. That is still more than 10.000 hectares below the level of 2019 and 5.000 hectares below the 5-year average.