Winter crop yields in western Australia are well above expectations, according to a new harvest report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA). Due to, among other things, a lack of frost, favorable timing of precipitation and better soil conditions, the yield exceeds 16 million tons.
In the report of GIWA a yield of 16,5 million tons is taken into account. A few weeks ago, a maximum of 15 million tons was expected, due to the dry conditions earlier in the season. The average grain yield will be around 2,72 tons per hectare, which is almost equal to the record production of the 2018 season. Barley production is head and shoulders above: 4,5 tons per hectare. This is somewhat special, because the area has decreased by more than 1,65 million hectares. This increases the yield to more than 4 million tons.
Only pluses
Not only the yield of barley has been adjusted upwards in the new report. The yield of winter wheat increases by 12,7% to more than 8,9 million tons. The quality of the wheat grains is also much better than previously expected, with approximately 40% having less than 10,5% protein and, compared to last season, much more product falls into the 'premium' category. Harvest expectations for canola, Australia's third largest winter crop, have been revised up by 8,2% to more than 1,6 million tonnes.
The large harvests do have consequences for prices. Worldwide grain prices are still showing an increase. For example, the price of wheat on the CBoT rose to $6,27 per bushel last week and the quotation on the Matif rose to €211,75 per tonne. This positive trend does not apply to Australia. The Australian Ministry of Agriculture expects prices to drop to $167 per tonne in the near future. Due to the large harvests, a large surplus is expected. Another factor that plays a role is that China is a major player import tariff has set on barley from the country.