The wheat listing on the CBoT in Chicago is under some pressure. This is the result of an improved harvest forecast for winter cereals in the United States. What also has an effect on the decreased wheat price are the export expectations from Russia.
On the CBoT in Chicago, wheat prices fell $0,12 to $6,14 per bushel. Due to the rain and snow in the United States, expectations for the winter grain harvest have increased. According to various analyst traders, this has created extra pressure on the market. However, recovery was soon visible. The quotation has now risen again by $0,04 to $6,18 per bushel.
Russian export forecast
Another reason for the lower wheat quotation is the export expectations from Russia. The country has adjusted this expectation downwards to 2020 million tons for the 2021/36,3 season. A few weeks ago, an export of 40,8 million tons was expected. It is mainly a result of an export tax that will be introduced on February 15, 2021. Russia has already exported 27 million tons of grain through December 57,5. Wheat has by far the largest share here, an increase of 20% compared to last year.
This uncertainty on the Russian export market led to price changes not only in the United States. Ukraine actually benefited from it. Due to good demand, the price in that country rose by about €2,44 per tonne. In Egypt, the wheat price is expected to stabilize in the coming months, due to recent price increases due to the corona crisis and various trade barriers.
No further decline expected
In addition, analysts do not expect the wheat price to fall further in the short term. Weather forecasts in key areas of the United States, Russia and Europe have a limited effect on the price. The imposition of export restrictions by Russia actually has the effect of driving up prices. The rising prices of corn and soybeans have more effect on the market and can have a positive effect on the wheat price.