The quotations for the various grains have been in an upward trend for weeks. Recently, the prices for maize, soy and wheat were already at the highest level in 6 years. The WASDE report from the US Department of Agriculture does not seem to stop the price rise.
The ending stocks for corn, wheat and soy are estimated by the USDA in the WASDE report to be lower than last month. As a result, the CBoT quote for soybeans increased by about $0,50 per bushel. Prices for wheat and corn also rose, by $0,30 per bushel and $0,25 per bushel, respectively.
Wheat stocks plunge
The global supply of wheat for the 2020/2021 season has been adjusted downwards by the USDA to 1,07 billion tons, a minus of 1,6 million tons compared to the December forecast. In China and Argentina there is mainly less harvest. China's production drops by 1,8 million tons and the Argentine harvest is reportedly 0,5 million tons lower. Argentina is therefore heading for the smallest harvest in 5 years. The expected production in Russia has been adjusted upwards and is expected to amount to 85,3 million tons. That's a record.
Wheat consumption is expected to be 1,8 million tons higher. In China and the United States, considerably more wheat is used in animal feed. This is partly due to the high corn price. Wheat is seen as a good alternative. As a result of an export ban, Russia exports approximately 1 million tons less wheat. The European Union and Canada in particular benefit from this: both sell about 0,5 million tons more. The closing stock of wheat is 3,3 million tons lower and ends at 313,2 million tons. China and India hold 51% and 10% respectively.
Lowest soy stocks in 7 years
Soy production is estimated by the USDA to be lower than in December. It is expected that approximately 2020 million tons will be harvested in the 2021/113 season, a decrease of approximately 1 million tons. The ending stock is estimated at 3,8 million tons. Expectations for the soy harvest have been adjusted downwards, particularly for the American states of Minnesota, Iowa and Kansas. The soy stock is therefore the lowest in 7 years. Concerns remain about the drought in South America. This could still have consequences for the global harvest of, among other things, soy.
Corn harvest smaller than expected
The ending stock of corn amounts to 283,8 million tons, a decrease of 5,1 million tons. Both production and demand have fallen. The production therefore amounts to 360 million tons. That is 8,2 million tons less than previously expected, which is mainly due to the lower yield per hectare and a decrease in the area. Total use is approximately 7 million tons lower than in December and amounts to 400 million tons. It is also expected that 2,7 million tons less corn will be exported. This is due to less supply and the high price.