A decent wheat harvest is not only expected in Australia and Russia, India is also heading for a record harvest in the 2020/2021 season. Expectations for Indian wheat exports have also taken a positive turn.
The wheat harvest in India is expected to reach 2020 million tonnes in the 2021/107,6 season, the highest level ever. The increased sown area and favorable weather conditions are the main reasons for the growth. The area amounts to a record 34,5 million hectares, an increase of 1 million hectares compared to the previous season. The fact that the sown area has increased is partly due to the timely announcement by the Indian government to pay a higher, minimum price.
Good export prospects
The larger wheat harvest does not appear to immediately lead to a surplus on the market, because export figures from India are also on the rise. In the period from April to December 2020, India exported around 976 million tonnes of wheat, according to the latest data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority. In the 2019/2020 season it was 'only' 217 million tons.
The reason for the increase in exports? Falling domestic prices, which has led to lower export prices. Now that wheat production is strong, several analysts expect prices to remain low for the time being. In the major wheat producing states, wheat prices range from $229 to $250 per tonne. The country is also helped by the upcoming export restrictions Russia, especially towards countries such as Bangladesh. In the 2020/2021 season, that country will purchase 6,6 million tons of wheat worldwide.