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Inside Grains

Lingering harvest boosts maize and soy prices

1 March 2021 - Niels van der Boom

Continued demand for soybeans and grain maize from China is driving US quotes (CBoT) to rise further. The harvest from South America is delayed, which the US can benefit from.

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The weather in Brazil and Argentina keeps the market quite busy. Not only does it affect soy and corn yields, it also delays the harvest in Brazil. For example, in the state of Paraná, only 8% of the area has been harvested compared to 30% last year. As a result, the export of soybeans is also delayed and the American stock markets are reacting to this. While it is very wet in Brazil, Argentina is experiencing drought, which has a negative effect on yields.

Export quietly
CBoT quotes peaked on Wednesday, February 24 and then slowed down. Maize eventually recovered. The stock markets opened on a more positive note this week. It is quiet with new export orders from Asia. According to analysts, this is probably due to the holiday period around Chinese New Year.

There is now plenty of speculation about sowing the new harvest in the Northern Hemisphere. In the US, arable farmers are leaning more towards soy than corn, now that soybean prices are at a favorable level. Ultimately, spring wheat may become the bottom line if the focus is on corn and soy. In China, arable farmers are leaning toward corn instead of soy, which in turn could push up the price of the latter crop.

Chinese record price
Brazil must temper China's hunger for raw materials, because the Americans are quickly running out of supplies and demand is not decreasing. The Chinese soy futures market also shows the high demand. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the price reached a level of $937,38 per tonne on Monday, March 1. The reason for this is that Chinese processors demand soybeans because Brazilian exports are slow to get going.

Wheat is also showing strength. Especially in Europe, because Russia will have to deal with an export tax of €1 per ton of wheat from March 50. Nevertheless, prices in the country have risen due to increasing demand. In the export tenders, it is wheat of European origin that is now calling the shots.

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