US farmers are sowing less corn and soy this year than analysts had expected. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its acreage forecast yesterday (Wednesday, March 31). The release is a boost to corn, soy and wheat stock prices at the CBoT in Chicago.
The USDA expects 91,1 million acre (about 36 million hectares) of corn to be planted this year. That is almost 1% more than last year. Analysts expected 93,2 million acres. The soybean area will be expanded by 5% to 87,6 million acres (approximately 35 million hectares). The acreage of soy is growing or staying the same in 23 of the 29 states where soy is grown.
More wheat than expected
The total area under wheat for 2021 is estimated at 46,4 million acres (approximately 19 million hectares). That's more than the 45 million acres the market assumed. Here too there is an expansion of the area by 5%. However, it is the fourth smallest wheat acreage in the US since records began in 3. 1919% more winter wheat has been sown than last year. A shrinkage of 9% is expected for spring wheat. The ministry expects 4 million hectares of winter wheat and 33,1 million hectares of spring wheat and 11,7 million hectares of durum wheat.
Cotton is the only major U.S. crop to shrink this year. With an expected area of 12 million acres (approximately 5 million hectares), 1% less cotton will be sown than last year.
Prices rise
With these figures, the grain market is regaining its upward momentum, according to several analysts. Supplies are relatively low, so an expansion of area is necessary. Compared to 2018, the total area is 3 million hectares smaller. In 2019 and 2020, part of it remained uncultivated due to bad weather conditions.
With the current high prices, analysts expect that a few available hectares will be brought into production this year. According to them, this effect has not been sufficiently taken into account in the report. The weather will play an even greater role in price formation this spring. There is little room for problems, especially with soy and corn stocks, which are at multi-year lows. If there are problems at the beginning of the growing season, the price can rise much further.