Cereal crops on the European continent grow well due to a combination of sufficient moisture and plenty of sun. Expectations are therefore constantly adjusted upwards. A good harvest is also expected in a tight month in the Black Sea region.
Coceral, the European organization of grain traders, has again revised upwards its expectations for the wheat harvest in the EU + the United Kingdom. If this comes true, the volume of soft wheat will be 14% higher than in 2020. Nevertheless, the Matif will show green figures in Paris this afternoon (Monday, June 7) with an increase of €4,25 per ton compared to Friday.
Catching up on backlog
The French market agency Agritel is also positive, including about the wheat in their country. A harvest of 38 million tons is expected this year, compared to 29 million tons last year. If the weather is favorable this month, this volume may increase slightly. The grain crops in the country are still about a week behind last season. If this type of weather continues, this gap can even be made up.
France, but also Germany, have had sufficient rainfall in most places from which crops are now benefiting. Our eastern neighbors are expecting a 2,5% larger wheat harvest of 22,66 million tons. Further east, Poland also expects a good wheat harvest of 12,2 million tons. That is 200.000 tons more than last year. Crop growth also slowed down in Central and Eastern Europe. A backlog of about 10 days is now being quickly made up. In some countries the quality is lower, such as in Romania. Lots of rainfall and high temperatures have caused high disease pressure.
Area in UK back to normal
The United Kingdom is harvesting significantly more wheat this year, although the traces of a wet autumn and winter remain visible. Last year the wheat harvest was disastrous due to a combination of few hectares and drought. This year the winter wheat area has increased by 30% and a volume of 15 million tons or more is expected. For comparison: last year it was only 9,6 million tons.
Winter grains are in good shape in the Black Sea region. In these growing areas, precipitation has fallen in a timely manner, which has benefited the crops. Market agency IKAR today (Monday, June 7) further increased its harvest forecast to 80 million tons of wheat. In the far south of Russia, the wheat harvest starts at the end of June. There are still concerns in the market about the development of spring wheat crops. They grow in the east of Russia and it is very dry there.
More wheat in Ukraine
The situation for winter wheat in Ukraine is similar to that in Russia. The market analysts at APK-Inform report a harvest volume of 30 million tons compared to 25 million tons last year. The total harvest of all grains amounts to 73,6 million tons compared to 64,9 million tons last year. As a result of the good harvest expectations in Ukraine and Russia, prices have fallen slightly. Due to the export tax system, smaller Russian grain exports are expected.
Where it is growing less well is the United States. The Midwest has entered a heat wave with temperatures reaching 37 degrees Celsius or more. It will remain dry and no rain is expected in the longer term. At the same time, the far north has had to deal with a cold wave that damaged corn. Both news events are grist to the mill of the bulls on the grain market in the US, which is looking further upwards on Monday, which also happened last week.
Rain prevents harvest
On the other side of the border it's a different story. Canada does receive significant rainfall and spring grains can benefit from this after a dry spring. In the southern states of Texas and Oklahoma, the combines have been running since the end of May, but the harvest is delayed by rain showers. 12% of the total area has been harvested. The rain that is falling now mainly causes quality problems in north Texas. Yields are variable due to the rain and drought earlier this season. It fuels the futures market in the US, which – with declining Russian export dominance – sees renewed opportunities for American wheat.