In Europe it will take another month for the combines to run, but wheat is already being harvested in the United States. 2021 grain harvest got off to a faltering start in the southern states due to rainfall and wet conditions. What do the first figures say about yield and quality?
According to the latter Wasde-report of the American Agriculture Secretary USDA, the country will harvest 35,6 million tons of winter wheat this year. That is an increase of 12% compared to last year. Forecasts for spring and durum wheat will not be announced until next month. In the states where these grains are grown, it is permanently dry, which means crop development is disappointing. The figures for summer grain can therefore turn out very differently.
Showers hinder harvest
Wheat is now being harvested in the southern states. This concerns soft and hard red winter wheat (SRW). About 5% of the total SRW area has been harvested, and even less of the hard wheat varieties. In Texas, a quarter of the wheat has already been threshed compared to 9% in Oklahoma. The harvest pace is lagging behind compared to previous years, because local rain showers and high humidity make it difficult to harvest the wheat dry. Wheat is now also being harvested in southern Kansas. Based on initial data, the USDA predicts HRW wheat production of 21 million tons. Almost a fifth more than last year.
The state of wheat depends on the state and region. For example, Oregon is experiencing a lot of drought and only 10% of the wheat is in good condition. In Kansas it is more than 60%. The first yield figures vary between 2,4 and 4,4 tonnes hectare with excellent hectoliter weights and an average protein content of 11,5%. Dry and warm weather ensures that the winter wheat is now ripening quickly. Yet it remains very humid, especially in Texas. This is where most quality problems can be found. Fusarium in particular is an issue.
Changing crops
Sweltering weather also makes for challenging conditions in southern states like Alabama, Arkansas and North Carolina. Mainly soft winter wheat is grown here. The USDA estimates that the yield is a quarter higher than a year earlier. Crop status varies greatly from state to state. Rainfall and high temperatures are detrimental to quality.
Further north, both winter and spring wheat are experiencing drought. The harvest of soft white winter wheat - as we also grow in Europe - is estimated by the USDA to be 20% smaller than last year. It is very dry in the states of Oregon, Washington and Idaho, which is clearly reflected in the status of crops that are currently in the ear. Conditions are even less favorable for spring wheat. The crops have not been in such bad shape in 33 years. Soil moisture supplies continue to decline in the Dakotas and other northern states such as Montana and Minnesota. Record high temperatures cause a lot of stress. The hard durum wheats, which are grown for pasta, also suffer from this.
Russian numerals
On the European continent, the wheat harvest will start in the far south of Russia at the end of June. In their latest Wasde report, the USDA further increased their yield forecast to 86 million tons of wheat. This is 11% more than the 5-year average. Of this, 64,5 million tons is winter wheat and 21,5 million tons is spring wheat. The growth in wheat volume mainly comes from the acreage, which increased 2% to 29,3 million hectares. The USDA estimates the yield per hectare to be 1,4% lower.
Analysts are still revising the Russian figures upwards. This also applies to the influential market agency SovEcon, which expects 82,4 million tons of wheat. At the same time, it also speaks of a significantly higher share of frost damage (winter kill) of almost 9% in wheat.