The shortage of rapeseed does not seem to be solved for the time being. In Canada, the world's largest exporter of rapeseed, the harvest seems to be disappointing due to heat and drought. This may also have consequences for Europe as one of the major importers.
Last week, the rapeseed quotation on the futures market in Winnipeg, Canada, even reached a new high of €661 per tonne. In the days before that, far above average daily profits were already achieved; approximately €100 per tonne in a week. Things have now calmed down a bit, but the rapeseed price remains historically high at €595 per tonne. For comparison: a year ago a ton of rapeseed sold for €330 on the stock exchange in Winnipeg. The European Matif listing shows a similar movement. The price increase here, at €40 per tonne, is less extreme than in Canada.
Tightness on the market
The cause of the price rally is tight balance sheets. The rapeseed yield in Canada is estimated by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 2,2 tonnes per hectare. That is below the multi-year average. The total harvest volume in Canada is estimated to be 300.000 tons lower compared to a month earlier and amounts to 20,2 million tons. The European rapeseed harvest is estimated by the European Commission at 16,7 million tons, 4,5% below the 5-year average.
The demand for rapeseed on the world market remains at the same level. The European Union alone will import approximately 150.000 more tons of rapeseed due to its disappointing own harvest. In the 2019/2020 season, Canada still had a final stock of 3 million tons of rapeseed. Before the start of the 2021 harvest, stocks have been more than halved and only 1,2 million tons remain. The ending stock for the coming season is expected to drop even further by 100.000 tons to 1,1 million tons.
Due to the limited supplies, several analysts expect that the relatively high prices will continue next year. The big question that still hangs over the market is what the actual rapeseed yield will be. As a result, the price may stabilize at a slightly higher or lower level.