How is the grain harvest in Europe?

Week 29 produced a series of stable and dry days, allowing plenty of grain to be harvested in most European countries. However, at the end of July, showery weather sets in, making it difficult to dry grains from the land. Arable farmers in Germany in particular have to deal with this. They still have to get quite a bit of barley from the land.

Smaller French harvest forecast
The grain harvest has started slowly in France due to the weather and late season this year. Almost all of the winter barley has been harvested and wheat is being threshed where possible. Consulting firm Strategy Grains has lowered its forecast for the French wheat harvest to 37 to 37,5 million tonnes. The previous estimate was 38 million tons. Wheat yields are simply disappointing, especially in the northeast of the country.

The quality of the wheat also decreases due to the wet weather. Three quarters of wheat is still good to excellent, according to government figures, but that figure is decreasing every week. For comparison: last year the counter was 57%. Then it was a drought that threw a spanner in the works. Nearly 20% of all wheat has now been harvested. That was 4% a week earlier and 67% a year earlier. The winter barley harvest is more than three-quarters complete.

Half of barley not harvested
More winter barley still needs to be harvested in Germany. Farmers' organization DBV estimates that at least half of the 1,25 million hectares is still fixed. The differences per state are large. In southern Germany, heavy rainfall makes threshing impossible. This concerns Bavaria and Saxony. The barley harvest has been completed in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The returns are reasonable with a wide spread. DBV expects the harvest to be 600.000 tons larger than last year.

The threshing of winter wheat has yet to start in most places. DBV expects German farmers to harvest 45,4 million tons of wheat, compared to 42,3 million tons last year. Due to the cold spring, the grain harvest is late this year. The organization dares not say much about the quality and yield, because no current figures are yet known. An estimated 150.000 to 200.000 tons of wheat were lost due to the storms and floods.

Average Polish harvest
In Poland the story is similar regarding the grain harvest. In the southwest, the barley harvest is almost complete and arable farmers are busy with rapeseed. Due to low hectoliter weights in the barley – 60 kg and lower – yields are relatively low. In other parts of Poland the harvest is erratic, depending on the weather. The government statistics service estimates a total grain harvest of 33,6 million tons. That's a little over a year earlier and just fine. There are concerns about the quality and hectoliter weight of the wheat. Especially in places where a lot of rain has fallen.

Further east, in Romania and Bulgaria, precipitation has not only resulted in lower quality. The crops have also been able to develop well this season after a very dry year in 2020. That is why a record amount of wheat is expected. If Romania harvests 11 million tons of wheat, that is a record for the country. About 80% is estimated to be of baking quality. The harvest is more than double that of last year.

Pressure from Russia
The European futures market quotation does not respond immediately to the changeable weather. On Monday, July 26, the September contract closed one euro higher, only to give up again on Tuesday and close at €212 per tonne. International reports – such as a good harvest in Russia and Ukraine – are currently putting more pressure on the market than changeable weather in Europe. Moreover, it is still early and too little is known about the exact wheat quality in the EU. The large volume of wheat from the Black Sea region is putting pressure on the export markets. The sky-high transport costs are also a barrier for buyers.