The grain harvest is progressing slowly, especially in Northern and Central Europe, due to changeable weather. Farmers are trying to harvest wheat as soon as the weather permits. Further south, warm and drier weather means that the harvest can progress quickly. Despite the fact that the futures market is trading higher, this is not noticeable when delivering to the well.
“We have become spoiled,” is a frequently heard comment from arable farmers and contractors this summer. In the last 3 years, the grain harvest was usually already well advanced by the beginning of August and planning could be made easily. Not this year. It is stealing between showers, where it is striking that the regional differences are enormous.
Dutch harvest
Last week, arable farmers were busy combining in many places. In the southwest mainly Tuesday and mainly Wednesday. Then rain again threw a spanner in the works. In Central Netherlands (Flevoland) conditions were very variable and harvesting was possible locally. Wheat has also been harvested in the north of the country. Here too the showers fell very locally. Driving was still possible in the south the previous week, but it remained wet there last week.
CZAV has received less than 20% of their total volume of wheat. A very different picture than in previous years. Wheat has been harvested, especially in Zeeuws-Vlaanderen and Noord-Beveland. Some work has also been done on the South Holland islands, especially on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 August, until it started raining. What plays a role is that arable farmers in Zeeland and Brabant often had to collect grass seed from the land before they could start growing wheat.
Varying Yields
Reported wheat yields are also variable. In the south and center the first reports are more positive than in the north of the Netherlands. Perhaps the later moment of flowering coincided with a dark and wet period, where this happened further south when the weather was better. While 10 tons is normally seen as the norm for arable farmers on clay, this year it is really up to 9 tons. In many places in Groningen, arable farmers talk about 7 to 8 tons. It is reported that there is a lot of straw on it.
Quality is partly responsible for the lower yields. CZAV reports hectoliter weights between 73 and 78 kg/hl. The further north you go in the country, the lower those numbers seem. This also applies to barley. Agrifirm calls the quality of the malting barley average. Arable farmers sometimes prefer to thresh the grain with a percentage of extra moisture than risk a decrease in the hectoliter weight. However, on nice days there is also plenty of moisture brought in with moisture contents between 15% and 16% or sometimes even lower.
French busy in last quarter
In France, it is estimated that about three-quarters of all wheat has now been harvested. Arable farmers have had a good week. Last week, 34% still had to be harvested. A year earlier, the wheat harvest had already ended completely. In the north and west the harvest is lagging behind and it is very wet. With a heat wave on the way - especially in central and southern France - the remainder can probably be collected quickly this week. We also notice this in our country. On Thursday it will be 27 to 28 degrees in many places. The volatility returns after the weekend.
In Germany the picture is very variable. While arable farmers in Saxony-Anhalt have almost finished the wheat harvest, there is still a lot to be harvested in Schleswig-Holstein. Farmers are reporting wheat yields 15% below June estimates. This brings the total German wheat harvest to over 21 million tons. In June there was still talk of 23 million tons. That volume is below the 5-year average of 22,3 million tons and approximately equal to 2020.
Growers in the Northeast are positive about the yield of rapeseed. 40% of the wheat has now been harvested there, with lower quality and lower yield than previously thought. The average yield is 7,3 tons per hectare. In southern Baden-Württemberg this is 7,3 tons/ha.
Rained out Polish harvest
Further east it becomes increasingly wetter. For example, the south-west of Poland is experiencing a very wet summer. More than 100 millimeters have fallen in recent weeks. It is much drier in the north. The rapeseed harvest has not yet been completed and most wheat still needs to be threshed. Quality problems are increasing, especially in the wet south. Wheat is already germinating in the ear there. The problem is also observed with rapeseed. The Polish grain harvest is estimated to be 4% smaller than last year. Partly due to harvest losses as a result of the wet weather.
Although the Matif futures market for wheat ended strongly last week at €229,50 per tonne for the September contract, this is not immediately noticeable upon delivery 'at the well'. A telephone tour of grain recipients Boerenbusiness learns that amounts of €200 per tonne or slightly higher are still paid. The international grain market is mainly in vogue due to the disappointing Russian and North American wheat harvest. This also fuels the European market, which is struggling with harvest disruption and quality problems.
Straw rises slightly
The price for straw from land at the Emmeloord fair fell last week by €5,00 per tonne to €50-€80 per tonne. The price of large bales actually increased by €7,50 – to €85-€95 – and that of small bales by €5,00. In Middenmeer the price rose by €2,50 with a range of €70-75 for large bales. The Goes stock exchange quoted between €85 and €95 for straw in large bales. It is expected that arable farmers will switch on the chopper earlier due to the changeable weather, but that does not yet put pressure on the straw market. However, it is currently very difficult to press and load under good conditions.