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Inside Grains & Raw Material

Grain in Central Asia suffers drought

19 August 2021 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

The dust after the publication of the August edition of the American WASDE report has not yet settled or there are more signs of disappointing wheat crops. Russian grain exports are lagging far behind in comparison and Kazakhstan expects the grain harvest to be almost a quarter smaller.

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Russia has exported 1 million tons of wheat in the period 18 to 2 August, according to market agency SovEcon. If we continue that line, Russia is heading for a total export in August of 3,4 million tons. That is significantly lower than in recent years when approximately 4,7 to 4,8 million tons were exported in August and also less than what many traders had assumed.

Drought hits Central Asia
Kazakhstan also has to deal with a major setback. The country announced today (Wednesday, August 18) that the grain harvest is likely to reach 15,3 million tons. That is 24% lower compared to the previous forecast. Drought has hit the country's key grain regions hard, Agriculture Minister Yerbol Karashokeyev said at a cabinet meeting. According to Prime Minister Askar Mamin, Kazakhstan will export approximately 6,5 to 7 million grains. Last season that was 8 million tons.

Due to the disappointing harvest, Kazakhstan has decided to ban the export of rye and limit the export of wheat and barley for feed production for the next 6 months. Kazakhstan exports part of the harvest to neighboring countries Iran and Afghanistan. An important part is also sold via the ports on the Black Sea. It is not unimportant that Kazakhstan, as a CIS country, is in a customs union with Russia, but that the export of Kazakh grain via Russian ports is exempt from the export tax.

Game in the region
Kazakhstan is the largest and largest grain producer in Central Asia and is comparable in volume to the United Kingdom in terms of wheat production. The harvest has just started in the country and about 10 million tons of grain has been threshed from 1,5% of the acreage.

The former Soviet Republic still maintains close ties with Russia. According to experts, the supply and demand in Kazakhstan has a major impact on the Russian regions in Siberia and the Urals, areas that have also been hit hard by the drought.

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