On Friday, September 10, the Wasde report from the US Department of Agriculture, USDA, was published. The data in the report is perceived as bearish for the market. So a pressing effect. Corn and soybean yields were increased. Wheat is an entirely different story.
The Wasde report was published on September 10. The report did not have a major impact on futures market quotations in Chicago on Friday. The question is whether the European futures market will respond to the figures today (September 13). The trade was already expecting an increase in corn and soy yields. The opinion of arable farmers is mainly that the yields have been estimated too high and that we will see reductions in the coming months.
More corn
The main part of the corn and soy has yet to be harvested in the US. Just before the start, the total size is estimated and the USDA has also contributed. Both the yield and the area of grain maize increased in the September report. The total harvest is estimated at 15 billion bushels, compared to 14,75 billion last month. Such a volume is the second largest ever in the US, thanks in part to the enormous acreage of 85,1 million acres (34,43 million hectares).
Not only production, but also consumption of maize has increased in the most recent figures. Both US consumption and exports increased by 75 million bushels. The total exports are therefore still lower than last season, the ministry believes. Partly due to a higher corn volume at the start, the expected ending stock ends up higher.
A little more soy
Soy yields increased minimally in the September report. The area is slightly lower. This means soy production will be slightly higher than last season, the USDA believes. The export figures have been adjusted upwards, but consumption in the country itself is expected to decline. This means that the final stock of soy will also be higher, partly due to a larger volume (carry-over) at the start.
On the wheat front, the USDA provided little news. The ministry is waiting for its report, which will be published on September 30, and which focuses specifically on wheat. The closing stock has again been adjusted downwards. Especially since the ministry believes that 10 million fewer bushels will be imported this season. Exports remained unchanged.
More wheat, more consumption
Globally, the USDA has increased Australian wheat production by 1,5 million tons and India's by 1,5 million tons. For the EU, production increases by 400.000 tons. The figure of 72,5 million tons of wheat for Russia remained unchanged. The above increases increase world wheat production by 3,4 million tons. Because consumption also increases by 3 million tons, this increase has been immediately absorbed. The USDA projects a shortage of 9,4 million tons in the 2021-22 season. Ending stocks do increase, mainly due to a larger stock at the start.
Global corn production has been significantly increased by the USDA. Mainly because of 6,3 million tons more corn in the US and 5,4 million tons elsewhere for 2021-22. The biggest pluses can be found in the corn yields of China and Argentina. The world corn supply is thus increasing. Coupled with a larger initial stock, the corn volume at 297,6 million tons was significantly higher than the 286 million tons that the trade had taken into account.