The US Department of Agriculture slightly revised the crop forecast for soybeans and maize upwards in the October edition of the Wasde report. The market has already taken this into account, according to several analysts. Only the soy stock raises eyebrows. Wheat stocks are expected to shrink. What does that mean for the price development?
For wheat, the USDA expects closing inventories to be smaller than in the previous Wasde report. World wheat production is 8,6 million tons lower and amounts to 1.064,2 million tons. The closing stock of wheat is estimated at 277,2 million tons. That is 6 million tons lower than in September and the smallest stock since 2016-17.
Focus on soy and maize
With the soy and corn harvest in full swing in the US, many analysts are focusing on these crops. The soybean harvest in the US is estimated at 4.400 million bushel (119 million tons), 74 million bushel (2 million tons) above the September forecast due to higher yields. Mainly due to the higher production and a higher initial stock, the closing stock of soy has been adjusted upwards by 135 bushel (3,7 million tons) to 320 million bushel (8,7 million tons).
According to several analysts, the USDA estimates yields and inventories very high, but this is justified by China's cautious position at the moment. China seems to be waiting in hopes that prices will fall. Area development and the course of the growing season in South America will determine the trend further into the season. A cautious fall in the soy price has already started on the CBoT.
Corn production is estimated by the USDA at 15.019 million bushels (320 million tons). That is 23 million bushel (0,6 million tons) more than last month. Global maize production remains virtually unchanged. Yields in the EU and Canada are slightly higher, while in Russia and Ukraine the yields are somewhat disappointing.