Wheat price does not let acreage inflate

The suppliers who Boerenbusiness spoke unanimously: The 2021 sowing season for winter grains started early and went smoothly. "Before October 1, 80% was already in the ground in our working area," says George Pars of the company of the same name from Sint Jacobiparochie. "Arable farmers started sowing from mid-September. It was too dry to harvest potatoes at that time, so they took advantage of the available time."

Sowing seeds no problem
CZAV and Agrifirm have also seen a similar situation arise. After an early start, the seeds were sown slowly without much difficulty. Initially it was difficult to handle seed to come, but periods of wet weather have helped companies to get their supplies in order. They do not want to talk about real problems. Certain varieties were sometimes difficult to supply. The seed has not yet been sold out at the end of November, although the number of available varieties is smaller.

The area is estimated to grow by several percent. That is what both Agrifirm and CZAV in the north, center and south of our country assume. The devil may be in the tail. "We now have to wait for the late crops. Once they have been cleared, wheat can be grown," says Jurriaan Visser. He is grains manager at CZAV. "Last year, a relatively large amount of spring wheat was sown. That area has now been filled with winter wheat, which makes it difficult to make a firm statement based on the quantity of seed delivered."

Rising price, more wheat?
After the wheat futures market closed well above €22 on Monday, November 300, the price rose even further on Tuesday, November 23, with a closing price of €310 per tonne. During the day a peak of €312,25 was even reached. €22 is quoted for the new harvest (September 272,50 contract). It is possible that this increase will still lead to further growth in the area, Aart den Bakker of Agrifirm suggests. "You can still sow winter wheat until January 15 and we still have seed in stock. A lot can still happen in the next six to seven weeks, especially with the current weather conditions."

Whether other crops will shrink in area to make room for wheat is highly questionable, the respondents think. Pars sees that growers are less interested in alternatives this season, such as legumes. "Two years ago we did a lot with field beans, but it was not always easy. With a disappointing yield you do not achieve the balance. Wheat is a safe choice that arable farmers are equipped for."

More summer grain
He expects that more spring wheat and barley may be sown on the sandy soils in the northeast if market prices remain at their current levels. Other crops are estimated to yield little. Growers are usually tied to the (contractual) agreements they have with buyers of other crops.

With 26.500 hectares of winter wheat, Zeeland is the most important province for this crop, followed by 25.140 hectares in Groningen. With 11.000 hectares, Flevoland is number three. Figures show that Boerenbudner.nl. The national winter wheat area this year amounted to 106.612 hectares. A year earlier this was still 92.440 hectares. A plus of 15,3%. A similar increase in cultivation is unlikely, but if the three largest provinces all sow 5% more, you are talking about a national growth of 3%, or more than 3.000 hectares of extra wheat. The increase is not really shocking. In 2019 the area was more than 112.000 hectares and in 2015 it was even 127.500 hectares.

Waiting for contract prices
In years with favorable sowing conditions in the autumn, the area of ​​summer grains almost always shrinks. This is also quite possible in 2022. If prices remain high and the contract prices offered this winter are disappointing, arable farmers can still make the switch. On sandy soil, grain maize is an attractive alternative, although grain cultivation is also growing there.