Canada is the largest producer of rapeseed in the world. The yield from that country therefore weighs heavily on the Matif listing in Paris. Recently, the US Department of Agriculture lowered yield expectations for Canada's crop by 400.000 tons, to its lowest level in XNUMX years. It is therefore not surprising that the rapeseed quotation is moving upwards again.
The Canadian rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 2021 million tonnes in the 2022/12,6 season. A few months ago - early September – that forecast was still 14,7 million tons. This means that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced the harvest for the umpteenth time; this time with 400.000 tons. It also means that the smallest yield is expected in fourteen years. The reason why the harvest is so disappointing for the number one producer is drought. The problems are particularly serious in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan, which together account for 80% of rapeseed production.
European Union imports less
Due to the disappointing yield and low initial stocks, the supply for export is clearly smaller this season. European imports of Canadian rapeseed have therefore fallen to a three-year low this marketing year. In the period from July 1 to December 12, the European Union imported a total of 2,08 million tons of rapeseed. That was 3,23 million tons less than a year earlier. Only 92.627 tonnes of rapeseed have been imported from Canada so far. A year earlier, this was 1,35 million tons in the period mentioned.
Not only is a decrease visible in Canadian rapeseed exports to the European Union, exports to the United Arab Emirates and China are also significantly lower. This concerns a minus of 50% and a minus of 40% respectively. The loss towards North America was less dramatic. Canadian rapeseed exports to the United States fell by 4% in the period from July to mid-December and exports to Mexico fell by 12% compared to a year earlier.
In addition, Canadian exporters also showed a 20% decrease in rapeseed oil exports. China is usually one of the major buyers, but is now switching to sunflower seeds due to a lack of supply. This way it can still meet the growing demand for vegetable oils. Other regions, including the European Union, choose to look for other suppliers. The European Union has imported a record quantity since the start of this marketing year: 272.080 tons. One of those other suppliers is Australia. That country is expected to produce a record amount of rapeseed this season. Total exports are estimated at 4,6 million tons; a year earlier that was 3,3 million tons.
Price continues to rise
The plus in Australia cannot compensate for the minus in Canada. And so the quotation for rapeseed on the Matif in Paris 'simply' continues to rise. The quotation closed on Friday, December 17, at €729 per tonne. That is a plus of about 1,5% compared to a week earlier. Canadian rapeseed prices also rose by 16% last quarter. And for comparison: one month ago the Matif was paid €691,25 per tonne and at the beginning of the year the quotation was €421,50 per tonne. However, it is expected that a greater demand for sunflower seeds - as a substitute producer - could cause the price for rapeseed to fall after the first quarter of 2022.