The average price for the export of maize will decrease slightly this year. That is the expectation of analysts from market agency IndexBox. Higher output and lower demand from Asia are the reasons for the price decline. Incidentally, the price is still far above the level before the corona crisis.
Globally, 169 million tons of corn – worth $36,4 billion – were exported two years ago, an increase of 6,4% compared to a year earlier. This is evident from figures from the market agency IndexBox. The United States was the main exporter, with an export volume of 52 million tons worth $9,6 billion (+25%). Mexico (15 million tons), Japan (10 million tons) and China (6,9 million tons) were the top importers of U.S. corn. The latter country even bought a total of 28,3 million tons on the world market last year, a record amount (+152%).
Corn exports from the United States also increased sharply last year, but not necessarily to China. In 2021, Canada was one of the major buyers of American corn. In the January through October period, U.S. corn inventories reached 60 million tons, up 30% from a year earlier. The export value grew to a record $16,5 billion during that period. Next year, sales to Canada will increase to more than 3 million tons. Nine times last year.
Price development
The ratio between export volume and export value has drifted further apart in recent years due to the raw materials rally. IndexBox calculates an average corn price of $260 per tonne for last year, an increase of 57% compared to one year earlier. On Friday, May 7, CboT corn prices reached a high of $304,22 per tonne. At the beginning of the year that was still $190,44 per tonne. The Matif listing in Paris saw a similar increase. At the beginning of the year the quotation stood at €200 per tonne. A peak was reached on Wednesday, August 4, with a price of €320 per tonne.
Prices for corn have now normalized somewhat. On Friday, January 21, the quotation on the CBoT closed at $243,30 per tonne and on the Matif at €247,50 per tonne. A downward trend is also expected in the coming months. IndexBox estimates that the average export price will be 10% lower this year, compared to last year. The higher output in combination with lower demand from Asia is the basis for this. Moreover, prices are still far above the level before the corona pandemic. At that time, a maximum of €170 per tonne was common.