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Analysis Raw materials

Commodity markets hit hard by war

24 February 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Food commodities showed extreme upward price movements, especially early in the morning. The stock markets, on the other hand, are on the downward path. All in all, a very turbulent day in the financial markets due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. How do we end the day in terms of markets?

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The wheat quotation on the Matif for the March contract remained just below €345 per tonne this morning shortly after the opening of the stock exchange. An unprecedented increase compared to yesterday's closing price of €287 per tonne. The stock market has not maintained that high price, but at the time of writing this article, fifteen minutes before the close of the stock exchange, the quotation for the March contract stands at €323,50 per tonne. That is 13% or €36,50 higher than yesterday. For the new harvest (the September contract), the price has risen by €320 during the day. The price has now fallen considerably again and the current price is €292 per tonne, an increase of 4,5% compared to yesterday's closing price.

The Matif quotes for corn and rapeseed showed less extreme price movements than wheat. At €292,50 per tonne, the corn contract for March is more than 9% higher than yesterday's closing price. It is striking that the June and August contracts (also old harvest) are quoted significantly lower at €280 and €279 per tonne. The various rapeseed contracts for the period April 2022 to April 2023 have increased between 5% and 6,5%. The contract for April 2022 stands at €777 per tonne.

Opposite movement of the potato market
The potato futures market is an odd one out in the raw materials market. The EEX fell €19,90 for the April 2022 contract. That is a decline of 6% compared to yesterday's closing price. The June contract fell even faster by almost 9% to €21 per 100 kilos. For the new harvest, the EEX did show a plus, namely 1,6%. This brings the April 2023 contract to €19,30 per 100 kilos. The sugar market also recorded a marginal gain. On the Liffe the increase remained below 1%. The April contract is at €500,10.

Brent crude has broken through $2014 a barrel for the first time since 100. At its highest point this morning at 10.25:105,57, Brent crude was trading at $103,58 per barrel. During the day this has fallen again and at the time of writing Brent is at $88,89 per barrel. The European gas price perhaps showed the most extreme price fluctuation today. Yesterday the TTF closed at €140 per MWh. This afternoon the quotation peaked at €115 per MWh. The current rate at the time of writing is €XNUMX per MWh.

The Amsterdam AEX index just closed 2,66% lower than yesterday at 708,55 points. This means that the Dutch stock market has remained above the psychological 700 point limit. That was different at the Moscow fair. The Moex Index lost almost 50% today. The price has been recovered somewhat, but the stock market closed 35% lower. Russian companies such as Gazprom, Sberbank, Lukoil and Novatek suffered significant losses. The value of the ruble has also plummeted.

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