The effect of the sanctions against Russia announced by the west this weekend has not immediately changed President Putin's mind. The commodity markets, on the other hand, are reacting strongly to the trade restrictions and the Russian threat with nuclear weapons.
The CBoT kicked off this morning with very large price movements. The March contract closed Friday at $843 per bushel (about €277 per tonne). This morning the Chicago stock exchange opened at $920,25 per bushel (approximately €302 per tonne). The May contract rose slightly less quickly: from $859,75 per bushel (approximately €283 per tonne) as the closing price on Friday to $930.25 per bushel (approximately €306 per tonne), but today's opening price still remains very extreme. For the March contract, the price at writing is $898,25 per bushel (approximately €295 per tonne). That is a decrease compared to earlier this morning, but still 6,5% higher than Friday's closing price.
Paris follows Chicago
The Matif quotation shows a similar picture. The closing price last Friday was €290 per tonne and the stock market opened today at €302,50 per tonne. In the first minutes of trading, this even rose to €313,75 per tonne. That has now dropped a bit, but not much. At the time of writing this article, the rate is €310 per tonne. The corn quotation is also on the rise. The March contract on the Matif has risen from €289,25 per tonne to an opening price of €310 per tonne. This rose further during the morning to €320 per tonne, an increase of almost 11%. The other contracts for 2022 are up between 6% and 3% compared to Friday.
The potato futures market is showing cautious signs of recovery following the significant losses last week. The April contract has risen to €19 per 100 kilos. That is €0,20 higher than last week. The June contract is even more firmly in place and increased from €1,50 to €22 per 100 kilos at the time of writing this article.
Oil price rising
The oil price is keeping pace with the grain market. Brent crude oil opened at $97,93 per barrel from $101,98 per barrel this morning. That rose to $105,07 per barrel at its peak this morning. The price has now fallen again, but at $102,89 per barrel, still 5% above last week's closing price. The Dutch TTF, the European benchmark for natural gas, is one of the biggest risers among raw materials. From Friday's closing price of €93,15 per MWh, the TTF opened this morning at €116,49 per MWh. Although this has weakened slightly in the first trading hours, at €107,65 at the time of writing, the price is almost 16% higher than before the weekend.
Stock markets down
The stock markets today show a less consistent picture. The Nikkei rose 0,19% on the first day of trading and closed at 26.526,82 points. At the time of writing, the AEX is down 1,50% at 717 points. In particular, the share prices of companies that have direct or indirect interests in Russia fell sharply, such as ING and Air France-KLM.
The Russian stock exchange in Moscow did not open for stock trading this morning and will remain closed until further notice. Currency trading is possible. The Russian ruble has fallen sharply in value against the dollar and the euro in recent days. Against the euro, the ruble has lost more than 20% of its value. The Russian central bank could normally cushion this decline with currency reserves, but these are largely frozen. Raising interest rates is therefore one of the few instruments the Russian central bank has left.