Normally, spring operations are in full swing at agricultural holdings in Ukraine. Everything is different this spring and the question is whether everything can be sown, planted, fertilized and sprayed. A (significantly) smaller harvest is a consequence that leaves its mark worldwide.
Depending on the location, spring has already started cautiously in the country. Particularly in the west of the country, plots can be sprayed, fertilized and sown. The winter grains and rapeseed have survived the winter relatively well. According to Ukrainian figures, 90% to 95% are doing well. The country's meteorological service warns that 900.000 hectares could deteriorate. That is 12% of the total sown area.
Top year
In Ukraine, winter grains and winter rapeseed are mainly grown. In addition, a lot of grain corn and sunflowers that need to be planted this spring. The large grain areas are located in the east and southeast of the country. After several dry years, Ukraine had a top year in terms of production in 2021. 32% more grain was harvested than in 2020. Good for 85,7 million tons. This made it an outlier on the European continent.
Everything - from fertilizer and seeds to diesel and machine parts - has been delayed in delivery. Access roads, railway lines and other important junctions are closed. Agricultural companies are therefore at a loss as to how to source products for the coming growing season. Kees Huizinga underlined this again last night (March 6) in a broadcast of News hour. Huizinga – originally from Groningen – has been farming in Ukraine for twenty years and has recently returned to the Netherlands. To draw attention to the urgency of the conflict, he says. He talks to politicians in the Netherlands and Germany, but also to the press. He keeps people informed about the situation in Ukraine via Twitter and Facebook. His followers also include many Dutch agricultural entrepreneurs.
Analyst agency APK-Inform – with offices in Russia and Ukraine – says that a shortage of seed and diesel is the biggest problem this spring. Some of the diesel supplies intended for agriculture have been handed over to the army, for example reports the agency in a press release.
Export licenses
In addition to sowing and caring for the young plants, there is also the export of products to take into account. The country has now created export licenses for products such as wheat, corn and sunflower oil, the government announced on Sunday, March 6. known. An export license also applies to eggs, sugar, beef and chicken, among other things.
Ukrainian railways are preparing to bring agricultural products to neighboring countries now that ports in the Black Sea region are closed. This concerns Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. This way the products can still be sold and delivered. At the end of February, the export grower had 43 million tons for this season. This means that exports are far from complete. Of the 33,8 million tons of corn, 18,7 million tons had been exported by the beginning of March. The country controls 16% of world corn exports. 80% of the total harvest is exported. For wheat this is 75%.
Bulkship sunk
Shipping traffic sailing via the Sea of Azov or the Black Sea has largely come to a standstill. A bulk ship from Estonia sank last week in the Black Sea, near Odessa, after hitting a mine. Two other ships were hit by Russian missiles shortly after the conflict broke out. Even when the ports reopen, the question is whether shipowners will dare to visit the country.
In addition to the export of Ukrainian grains, there is also the role of Russian grains – mainly wheat. The country is the world's largest exporter of the grain. More and more Russian goods are being boycotted by the West and other countries. Wheat and other grains are not (yet) included. The impact of that would be enormous for the world, just like one export ban for fertilizer. However, such draconian measures are not unthinkable. This makes the conflict in Ukraine an unprecedented global crisis.