The quotation for maize on the Matif already showed a cautious decline on Monday 7 March. And Tuesday, March 8, the Paris futures market will follow the same line. After more than a week of rising wheat prices, the stock market puts a lower price on the plate.
The March contract closed on Tuesday, March 8 at €395 per tonne. That is 6,5% lower than the closing price one day earlier, but higher than Friday, March 4. The quotation then closed at €393,75 per tonne. The May contract fell by 6,4% to €371,25 per tonne. The first contract of the new harvest (September) also closed lower, at €318 per tonne. That is 6% lower than Monday. The remaining contracts for the new harvest fell by percentages between 3% and 4%, but largely remain above €300 per tonne. Only the May 2023 contract closed below that limit: €297 per tonne. All contracts for the new harvest are above the closing prices before the weekend.
The American wheat quotations on the CBoT in Chicago show a greater decline than the European quotation. At the time of writing this article, losses, both for the contracts for the old harvest and for the 2022 harvest, are between 8% and 10%. The March contract stands at $1.311,25 per bushel (approximately €443 per tonne).
The corn quotations on both the Matif and the CBoT show smaller losses. On the Matif, the June 2022 contract has fallen by 1,6% to €346 per tonne. On the CBoT, corn prices for both the old and new crops are down 0,6% to 2,6% compared to Monday.
What does the physical market do?
The above quotes concern the futures markets. But regional Dutch stock exchanges also showed an unprecedented price increase in recent weeks. Rotterdam quotes €415 per tonne for week 10. That is €65 higher than one week earlier and no less than €118,50 higher than in week 8. Now the quotation in Rotterdam is largely based on industry and trade prices. . The Goes and Groningen stock exchanges - which provide a better picture of grower prices - are trading slightly lower, at €360 and €350 per tonne respectively in week 10. Goes has therefore risen by €70 and Groningen by €49 per tonne.
The quotations on the physical market thus take an unprecedented step upwards. An increase of €70 per week or more than €100 in fourteen days is rare or never seen. There is often criticism about the futures market that speculators inflate the price. On the regional exchanges it concerns actual transactions of wheat. There is of course an interaction between the physical market and the futures market rate.