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Analysis Cereals

Correction to CBoT, war continues to dominate the market

9 March 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Also last night, wheat prices on the CBoT touched the daily limit. Only this time it wasn't about the top, but about the bottom. The series of six days of sharply rising wheat prices has thus been broken.

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The March contract on the CBoT in Chicago closed Tuesday, March 8, at $1.273 per bushel. This translates to approximately €427 per tonne. It is a decrease of 10% compared to Monday's quotation. The March contract is about to expire and there are few positions open. Most trading is done on 'May'; that contract is now (surprisingly) higher than that of March.

This night - Tuesday March 8 to Wednesday March 9 - the May contract closed at $1286,50 per bushel (€432 per tonne). That is a decrease of 0,5%, compared to one day earlier. The September contract closed at $1.100,75 per bushel (€369 per tonne) at the same time. On Monday, this contract closed at $1.141,50 per bushel (€383 per tonne).

Corn and soy on the rise
The prices for corn and soy were cautiously up last night. The March corn contract closed at $754,50 per bushel ($297 per ton). This is an increase of 0,7% compared to Monday, March 7. Soy is trading at $1.704,50 per bushel (€572 per tonne). The closing price on Monday, March 7 was $1.674,25 per bushel. This translates to €562 per tonne.

Although the wheat price on the CBoT in particular has taken a heavy hit, analysts warn that disruptions in the supply of wheat and corn from the Black Sea region will still dominate the market for the time being. A correction after the exceptional rally of recent days has been taken into account by analysts. Given the limited losses on the longer-term wheat contracts and the increase in corn and soy contracts across the board, the market still appears to be tense.

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