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Analysis Grains and raw material

High wheat price also attracts Brazilian farmers

17 March 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

The wheat quotation has taken a step back on both the Matif and the CBoT. The negotiations between Ukraine and Russia about a possible ceasefire are the main reason for this, according to analysts. But the relatively high wheat price is also attracting Brazil's interest.

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The May wheat contract on the Matif fell from €386,50 per tonne on Tuesday to €363,50 per tonne yesterday. The contracts for the new harvest have also fallen. The September contract was closed yesterday at €318,50 and will gradually decrease to €298,75 per tonne for the May 2023 contract. This means that for the first time in seven days a contract for the new harvest below €300 per tonne has been concluded. On the CBoT, wheat prices fell even further and reached the daily limits of the stock exchange. The May wheat contract closed 7% lower at $1069,25 per bushel (approximately €356 per tonne).

Growth of wheat area
Due to a possible armistice between Ukraine and Russia, the market is pricing in the possibility that more wheat from these countries can enter the world market. Although this is anything but certain, it does have a downward effect on wheat prices. The American Market Bureau Allendale yesterday published the results of the research into the area forecast for this season. U.S. farmers are planting 48,892 million acre (approximately 19.786 million hectares) of wheat, according to the survey. That's almost 900.000 acres more than the USDA forecast. That is an almost one-to-one reduction in the corn area of ​​approximately 364.000 acres.

The high wheat price also attracts the interest of Brazilian farmers. The country is generally a net importer of wheat. Corn and soy are the major export crops. The relatively high grain prices in recent months have ensured that Brazilian farmers now have cash in their bank accounts. There is room to expand the agricultural area in Brazil and farmers now have the capital to actually realize that expansion. In view of geopolitical developments and world market prices, wheat is of great interest to Brazilian farmers.

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