Black Sea grain export remains impossible

When Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24, exports from the Black Sea and Sea of ​​Azov immediately came to a halt. There are now about three hundred ships that have been stationary for less than a month and cannot load or unload in one of the ports. In the early days of the war, several ships were sunk by mines. There is a lot of uncertainty about the exact number of ships. The number three hundred is frequently mentioned in the media, but there are also sources that speak of a hundred ships.

Ships departed
On March 15, five ships with grain left from the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk. According to Ukrainian sources, Russians stole those ships and took them to their own country. Other sources say the ships have left because Russian troops need moorings to bring supplies for the invasion.

Meanwhile, part of the Black Sea is unsafe because mines have been laid. This is not only a problem for Ukraine, but also for the Romanian port city of Constanța. This European country is an important exporter of wheat, among other things. This season it has 6,5 million tons of wheat to export. This makes it the largest EU exporter of wheat; almost three quarters of all wheat exports in the EU come from this country. Countries in the Middle East are major customers, such as Egypt. Romania harvested a record 34 million tons of grain last year.

Is export possible?
Even if Ukrainian farmers are able to sow, fertilize and harvest, the question is whether these products can be exported. In the first place, of course, its own population must be fed and there is a chance that Russia will feast on the breadbasket of the continent of Europe. That too is a what if scenario. If the export of grains from Russia does not get going next season, the country itself will have more than enough stock. For the African continent, the danger lies mainly in wheat. The lack of sunflower oil is strongly felt in the EU.

If the Russian occupier does allow exports, ships must be able to call at the ports. Several large shipping companies have previously indicated that they will not sail to Ukraine for fear of not being able to leave or a dangerous journey along the way. This also applies to ships sailing to and from Russia. The West sees a chance that Russia will stop exports of grain – especially wheat – as a means of pressure if it is further tortured itself. The country produces about 80 million tons of wheat and exports 30 million tons worldwide. Ukraine slightly less: 20 to 25 million tons.

Consequences due to shortages
With the disappearance of these two countries, a shortage of wheat in the EU is not an issue. With 139 million tons of wheat, the EU is the world's largest producer, based on figures from the US USDA. China is in second place with 137 million tons and India in three with 109,5 million tons. The EU does import a lot of sunflowers (and oil) and grain maize. This has a direct impact on food prices and animal feed prices.

Much now depends on the Ukrainian spring. The winter grains (95% of all wheat and barley are sown in the fall) have survived the winter well but now need to be fertilized and sprayed. That happens little by little. Immediately after the invasion, President Zelensky called for farmers to do everything they could to continue their work, although in many cases this is very dangerous. Men have enlisted in the military and fuel has that priority too.

Farms are targeted
What is new is that the Russian occupiers are deliberately targeting agricultural companies for their actions. Yards are bombed and machines destroyed. Also, shipments of grain would be confiscated. Videos are circulating on social media showing how agricultural companies have been destroyed. If these actions are carried out on a large scale, it will bring the war into a new phase. Season 2022-2023 can then be considered largely lost with consequences for many countries worldwide.