The winter cereals survived the winter relatively well in Europe. The mild winter conditions had a positive effect on the grains in most areas. In southern Europe, however, there was considerably less precipitation and northern Africa is sounding the alarm because of extreme drought.
It is still very early in the season, but the mild winter has left its mark on winter cereals. The yield forecasts for cereals in Europe are therefore above the five-year average. That writes the scientific office of the European Commission (JRC) in the March edition of MARS bulletin.
Grain yield forecast up 3,3%
The average yield forecast for cereals in Europe is estimated at 5,6 tons per hectare. That is 3,3% higher than the five-year average. Due to the mild winter conditions, there is little frost damage and the crop has experienced little hindrance. The average temperature was often higher, sometimes by as much as 2 to 4 degrees higher than normal for that time of year. However, the yield forecast is 0,9% lower compared to the 2020/21 season, when the grains in Europe were still slightly better. This is mainly due to the winter barley, which is 4,1% lower this season compared to last season. The winter wheat is almost the same, with 0,2% lower compared to last season.
Wheat is doing well in Western and Central Europe
In Western and Central Europe, the grains note a small plus in how they stand. A big contrast compared to last season, when countries such as France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany were below the five-year average. This year, the Netherlands and Belgium will improve by 9,5% and 12% respectively compared to the 2020/21 season. Germany and Denmark are also in better shape according to the yield forecast.
In Eastern Europe and Northern Europe, cereals also benefited from a relatively warm and dry winter. Periods of extreme cold this season were much less common than usual in winter. This was already the case last season and the grains were in excellent condition around this time of year. Drought has affected some countries such as Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Romania, which means that the yield forecast is lower in Eastern Europe.
In Southern Europe, the cold and drought already caused problems at the time of sowing. In Spain and Portugal there was drastically less precipitation, which means that water reservoirs in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are at a very low level. As an example Andalusia with a capacity of 31% of the total. Sowing has also been made more difficult in Italy and precipitation is urgent to prevent a reduction in yield. In the north and east there was 50% to 80% less precipitation. The central and southern regions also saw significantly less precipitation. Also, less snowfall in the Alps has a major impact on the replenishment of water in lakes and rivers during the growing season.
Up to 50% less yield in Morocco
The north of Africa suffers from extreme precipitation shortages. In Morocco, the situation is worrying and the precipitation deficit is more than 70%. In some areas, people are still waiting for the first rain showers. As a result, the yield forecast falls sharply with a decrease of 50% for wheat and 48% for barley. Cereals in neighboring Algeria are also struggling with drought. The current position is well behind the long-term average and the yield forecast is 48% less for wheat. In Algeria, the yield forecast is 27% lower, while the grain yield there was also poor last season. Cereals have been hit least hardest in Tunisia, but there too the state of cereals is below average.