After two days of falling grain prices, wheat, maize, soybean and rapeseed closed in the plus on both the Matif and CBoT on Wednesday. Concerns about developments in Ukraine are an important factor in this regard. US traders and speculators are also taking their positions ahead of the acreage forecasts that the USDA will release today.
The May wheat contract closed at €362,50 per tonne on the Matif. That is €5 above Wednesday's closing price. The first contract for the new September harvest amounted to €327,50 per tonne and this decreases to €316 per tonne for the May 2023 contract. Wheat was 1,3% higher on the CBoT. Soy also closed 1,3% higher on the American stock exchange and corn rose almost 2,5%.
Renewed concerns about the course of the war in Ukraine are an important factor in the recovery of grain prices. Commitments from Russia about scaling down combat activities around Kiev, among others, appear to be of little value in practice and attacks in the southeast continue unabated. The fear therefore remains that the problems with grain exports from the Black Sea region will not be over any time soon.
Furthermore, traders are taking an advance on the acreage expectations that the USDA will announce this afternoon American time. Market experts expect a significant expansion of the wheat area and a growth in the soy area. This is mainly at the expense of the hectares of corn that American farmers will sow.
Sowing is ahead of last year
In Ukraine, farmers have already sown approximately 400.000 hectares of spring crops, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture announced. This means they are more than 10% ahead of last year, despite the war and, for example, problems with the availability of diesel. According to the ministry, this is partly due to the crops being grown this year. It is likely that less maize and sunflowers will be sown - crops with a relatively high fertilizer requirement - and more oats, peas and barley. These crops are sown earlier.
India could set a new export record this season, according to sources. The country is one of the largest grain producers in the world. However, India is usually not sufficiently competitive to compete in the global market. Given the current prices and market developments, the cards are so shuffled that interest in grain from India has increased considerably.