The wheat quote is stalling on both the Matif and the CBoT. It seems that today the closing price on the last trading day of this month is higher than the previous month. That is already the third time in a row.
The wheat quotation on the Matif closed yesterday (April 28) at €416,50 per tonne. This is €1,75 lower than the day before. The contracts for the new harvest are still showing an upward trend. The September contract even increased by €7,25, to close at €385 per tonne. On the CBoT, the most heavily traded July contract closed 0,5% lower at $1.085,75 per bushel. That is approximately €377 per tonne. Corn prices jumped on the Matif to €349 per tonne (+5,5% since Friday April 22). On the CBoT the plus over the same period was just under 6%.
A few factors play a role in the correction of the wheat quotation. The market agency FranceAgriMer released new figures on the progress of the growing season. The condition of the wheat and barley in France is generally 'good' and that gives confidence in the yield. And therefore also in the European stock for this season. In the United States, wheat exports were lower than trade had expected. That dampened the mood somewhat.
However, analysts see no reason for a much further decline in the price. Exports from the Black Sea region are difficult and that will not change for the time being. This lays a solid foundation under the price. At the same time, the supply of wheat is limited and there are no signals that there is much additional product on the market. Interest in wheat is increasing among farmers in Latin America. But in Brazil, for example, soy and corn continue to dominate.
Corn slow to start
According to analysts, the weather in the United States is one of the reasons for the rising corn price. Due to cold and rain, the sowing of the maize starts slowly. Many growers have the capacity to produce many hectares in a short time, but there are limits to that. Now that April is almost over, time is running out not to miss the optimal sowing time. According to agronomists, this is between April 20 and May 10. If sowing is done later than May 15, this will potentially cost a yield of 5%. And that will then quickly increase to 20% on June 1. In the current tight market, these are figures that are clearly priced in on the futures market.