The yield forecast for cereals is still above the 5-year average. The weather conditions of recent weeks had a positive effect on the growth of grains. However, parts of southern Europe are affected by the drought.
In the north, west and center of Europe in particular, winter cereals were able to continue to grow undisturbed. The sowing and planting of summer crops is divided in Europe. Spring started relatively cold and dry in most parts of Europe. Several areas in southern and central Europe are even less flourishing due to this persistent drought. However, the yield forecast for cereals in Europe is above the five-year average. That writes the scientific office of the European Commission (JRC) in the April edition of the MARS Bulletin.
Yield forecasts for cereals pluses
The average yield forecast for wheat in Europe is estimated at 5,7 tons per hectare. That is 2,3% higher than the 5-year average. The weather conditions of the past month were sufficient to continue the development of winter crops, after they already survived the winter above average. The same applies to barley, where the average yield forecast is 5,0 tons per hectare, an increase of 2,6% compared to the 5-year average. However, the yield forecast for cereals has fallen slightly compared to last month, because temperatures in many places in Europe fell below average in early April.
Also in Central and Eastern Europe, the grains are relatively good and the countries record a considerable increase in grain yields. This is partly due to the very mild winter they have had. The average temperature in March and April was below average, but sufficient to continue crop growth. However, there is a need for precipitation in eastern Europe, where the moisture content is below average. Sowing of summer crops also started later in these areas. The same applies to the regions around the Black Sea. Northern Europe is doing extremely well, as are countries such as Denmark, Sweden and Latvia. They record an average increase of 5%. In Western Europe, the yield fluctuates around the 5-year average, often with a small plus.
Drought and cold ravage Southern Europe
If we look at the yield forecasts per country, it is striking that Southern Europe in particular lags behind the rest with regard to cereals. There is still a lot of drought in Portugal, Spain and Italy. In addition, they experience a relatively cold spring. For example, Spain and Portugal are forecast to see wheat yields drop by 7% and 19% compared to the 5-year average. Portugal and Spain are now partially provided with precipitation, but the drought damage remains unchanged.
The drought in combination with the low temperature made it more difficult to sow and plant summer crops. Especially in parts of Italy, the water level in the reservoirs is still critical. After a dry winter, there was again less precipitation in the past month.
Extreme drought in North Africa
The north of Africa suffered from extreme precipitation shortages for a long time, but now precipitation has fallen. However, the precipitation came too late, which means that the grain harvest cannot be recovered. In Morocco it is expected that more than half as much wheat and barley will be harvested. Also in Algeria, 45% less wheat and 27% less is harvested. In Tunisia, the yield is slightly below average, as they received significantly more precipitation.