Ukraine can expect a harvest of 60 to 65 million tons of grains and oilseeds this year. Adding the currently occupied territories, this rises to 80 to 85 million tons. The problem is that most of these cannot leave the country.
This is what businessman and former MP Ivan Mironishchenko says in an interview with the Ukrainian website agropolit.com. Mironishchenko made a career with, among others, Cargill and is considered a heavyweight in Ukrainian agriculture. His nickname is 'the agricultural cardinal'.
Russian blockade
Ukrainian exports are now virtually at a standstill, because the transhipment ports have been bombed and the Russian fleet maintains a blockade. Transport by road and rail is now slow and sparse. The EU wants to do something about this together with Ukraine, so that soon via 'solidarity jobs' 1,5 to 2 million tons per month can still be exported via the EU.
Export up with extra measures
That is not enough. Mironishtsenko believes that the export volume can increase further to 3 to 3,5 million tons per year. In addition to exports via the Danube and rail, exports via Poland and the Baltic countries must also be increased. Problems are the railway network and the European requirements for freight traffic. Ukraine still uses the 'Russian' track gauge, which means that either the rail wagons have to be adapted, or better transfer stations are needed for export via Northern Europe. In addition, it is desirable that the EU grants temporary exemptions for Euro 3 and Euro 4 trucks to use the European road network. Now they are not allowed there.
Belarusian corridor tricky
Mironichenko sees many snags on a transport corridor via Belarus, as the Americans have suggested. Belarus is an ally of Russia. It is partly for this reason that it is politically uncertain whether it will be possible to keep it afloat. Moreover, President Lukashchenko will ask for something in return, it is to be expected.
Mironishchenko himself therefore puts his cards on a combination of enhanced export via the Danube and via road and rail to the Baltic ports as well, and the retention of the remaining grain until 2023, when the war may be over. If that doesn't happen, Ukrainian agriculture will gradually fall further into the doldrums, according to the report.