The new yield forecast for Ukraine is slightly higher than expected in April. However, the country is still counting on a significantly lower crop yield than last year. For example, Ukraine expects a 40% lower harvest of wheat compared to 2021. Despite this new forecast, there is still enough raw material to export for Ukraine.
According to the new crop forecast of the Ukraine Grain Association (UGA), Ukraine could potentially produce 66,5 million tons of grain and oilseeds. According to the latest figures, this covers a total area of 18,8 million hectares. Most crops have increased slightly in yield, but a crop such as sunflowers is actually lower.
40% less wheat, 30% less corn
Despite the Russian invasion, occupied territories and difficult logistics, Ukrainian farmers have done everything they can to sow as much acreage as possible. According to UGA figures, the corn harvest forecast has grown to 26,1 million tons. This is still 30% lower than in 2021. Wheat expectations have increased slightly to 19,2 million tons, compared to 2021's record yield of 33 million tons. The forecast for barley this year is 6,6 million tons and soybeans at 2,1 million tons.
However, a large part of the fields have not been sown, especially in the east and southeast of Ukraine. These regions grow many sunflowers, rapeseed and wheat. That explains why the sunflower harvest forecast has been corrected further downwards to 9 million tons. Oilseed rape has also almost halved in volume to 1,5 million tonnes.
Export must continue
Despite a 40% lower wheat yield, according to the UGA, there is still more than enough wheat to be exported. Only a third of the total production of 19,2 million tons is needed for consumption by the population of Ukraine. Other crops also need to be exported, given the volume. The UGA indicates that with this harvest forecast, Ukraine is expected to export 30 million tons of grain and oilseeds. The stumbling block is logistics, which must be at least doubled compared to current capacity. Today, the capacity of alternative routes does not exceed 1,5 million tons per month. At least a volume of 3 million tons must be exported, which is certainly possible if the Black Sea is reopened for Ukrainian agricultural raw materials. That doesn't seem to be possible for the time being.