Analysis Grains and raw material
The weather is also hindering crops in Ukraine
Not only the war situation but also unfavorable weather conditions have led to lower crop yields in Ukraine. In combination with the lower acreage, the yield forecast at country level is historically low. Crops such as maize and sunflowers are on average.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThis is revealed in a special edition of the European Commission's JRC Mars bulletin on Ukraine's crop monitoring. Particularly in western and central Ukraine, adverse weather conditions have resulted in lower crop yields of winter cereals. In the east of the country, the winter cereals are slightly above average.
Far below revenue 2021/22
According to the yield forecast, winter wheat achieves a yield of 4,11 tons per hectare at country level. That is the same as the five-year average, but 9,3% less than the average yield in 2021/22. Winter barley is also less on the list with an expected yield of 3,47 tons per hectare. Like winter wheat, this is equal to the five-year average, but 12% lower than the 2021/22 yield. This is because the crops yielded above-average yields last growing season. It is not without reason that a record yield was achieved for several crops in Ukraine last season.
Autumn was 30% to 50% drier than usual in Ukraine, with the southwest suffering the most from the precipitation deficit. The temperature was also on average 2°C lower than normal. This was not the case in the Northwest, which makes for a positive yield forecast. The winter months were again dry, causing crop growth to stagnate. The temperature during this period was higher than normal and frost damage has hardly occurred, according to the report. Also striking in the report is that the hectares of winter cereals are lower than last season, with 6,5 million hectares (-7,8%) for winter wheat and 0,9 million (-15%) for winter barley. A part will be due to the drought in the fall. Another reason is the lost land in Ukraine's eastern provinces due to the conflict.
Summer crops uncertain
Planting and sowing summer crops was quite a challenge for Ukrainian farmers due to the shortages in the country. As a result, the sowing campaign lasted a historically long time and was also hampered by precipitation during the end of April. May was very fertile, which means that crops that have received sufficient fertilization and have been sown under reasonable conditions are currently in good shape. For example, the yield forecast for maize is 7,3% higher than the five-year average according to the report. Sunflowers and soybeans also posted a plus of 7,9% and 11%. Compared to last season, the crops are less and they are all several percentage points negative this year.
However, it is by no means certain what the course of the growing season will be. It is still early in the season and very restless in the country. The development of the crop can still go in all directions. And even if the crops will soon be ready for harvest, the Ukrainian farmer still has to get the product in. That can become even more difficult after the problem with saving, according to recent posts. The areas of summer crops are already significantly lower, according to figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. In addition, there has been a significant heat wave in most of Ukraine since the beginning of June. The crops benefited from the higher temperature, but precipitation is definitely needed in a short time if the yield is not to be at the expense of this, according to the report.