Russia has to reckon with an absolute record yield of grains. The total wheat production of the current season is estimated to be 88,8 million tons, breaking the record of 2020. The other grains also achieve top yields, partly due to an area expansion.
The European Commission makes these predictions in a special edition of the JRC-Mars Bulletin on Russia. Already last winter there were many signals that the winter grains were doing above average. According to the yield forecasts from the JRC report, this is still correct. Winter wheat recorded an 8% higher yield compared to the five-year average, which rose from 3,66 tonnes to 3,94 tonnes per hectare. Barley is also showing a 10% higher yield compared to the five-year average, rising from 3,83 tonnes to 4,22 tonnes per hectare.
Favorable weather conditions
A good start is half the battle and that is certainly the case in the grain region of Russia. Favorable weather conditions during autumn sowing resulted in a significant increase in winter wheat acreage and smooth growth. In addition, frost damage was negligible in most regions, which meant that the grains got off to a good start. During the spring, favorable growing conditions continued in most regions. The spring crops were also sown and planted in good conditions.
In some areas, the precipitation deficit increased during the spring and drought sometimes occurred. In certain areas, yields have been negatively affected by less rainfall and the relatively warm month of June. Spring barley and spring wheat are therefore lower than the five-year average. But thanks to the positive weather conditions in combination with the increased winter wheat area, an absolute yield record is in prospect.
Multiple record revenues
Russia, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, could be preparing for a new record wheat yield. The current record production of 86 million tons of wheat in 2020 will be replaced by the current yield forecast of 88,8 million tons this season. Last season was quite disappointing and 76 million tons were harvested, which is several million tons below the five-year average.
But not only the good hectare yields are responsible for the harvest record. The increase in area also counts. For example, the winter wheat area is 8% higher than the five-year average to 16 million hectares. The area of winter barley also increased by 9% compared to the five-year average. This has been at the expense of the area of spring wheat and spring barley, but does benefit the total yield given the standard higher yield. The increase in area and hectare yield ultimately ensures that wheat grows to an average of 11% above the five-year average. Corn also stands out in the JRC report estimates. The area is increasing by 10% and the crop is in very good condition, resulting in a 20% higher yield compared to the five-year average.