The ongoing talks about resuming grain exports from the Black Sea region have put some pressure on quotes on international stock exchanges. In addition, significant progress has been made with the harvest in the northern hemisphere. These have a price-inhibiting effect.
On the Matif, the September wheat contract closed €1,50 lower at €342,75 per tonne. The listing on the CBoT showed a slightly stronger decline. The price in the US fell by 2% last trading session to $7.95 per bushel (approximately €291 per tonne).
The wheat harvest is progressing steadily, often under favorable conditions. This currently ensures a relatively large supply of wheat. Optimism about a breakthrough in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on resuming grain exports prevailed on the market, according to some analysts. An agreement on those negotiations will be signed next week, the Turkish defense minister reported earlier this week. Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres, however, kept his distance.
Low harvest expectations in Ukraine
Exports of grain from Ukraine amounted to 598.000 tons in the first week of July, according to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture. That is 35,4% less compared to the same period last year. The total grain yield is now estimated at 50 million tons. Last year a record harvest of 86 million tons was harvested. The lower yield this season is partly due to the loss of parts of the land to the Russian occupier, but the yields per hectare are also lower compared to last year.
Several experts warn against overestimating the role of Russia and Ukraine on the world market, especially wheat. The supply of wheat is and remains tight. Fundamentally not much has changed in recent weeks. The yield figures from the EU and the US are at least as important. These will largely determine the direction of the wheat market in the near future.