Prices on the international grain exchanges are under pressure today. This is largely due to the further increase in the export of grain from Ukraine. However, confidence in the grain deal remains fragile. In addition to the geopolitical developments, more and more yield figures from the wheat harvest are also coming out and a very mixed picture emerges.
During the writing of this article, wheat prices on the Matif have fallen by approximately 1,5% compared to the closing price for the weekend. On the CBoT the loss was limited to approximately 0,5%. The corn contracts for the new harvest fell by about 1% and in the soy trade the contracts for this calendar year are even up.
The lower quotations on the stock exchanges are partly due to the continued increase in grain exports from Ukraine. Ten ships have now departed from three ports in Ukraine. According to data from the Turkish Ministry of Defense, 243.000 tons of corn, 11.000 tons of soybeans, 6.000 tons of sunflower oil and 45.000 tons of sunflower meal were exported. By comparison before the Russian invasion, exports from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea reached 6 million tons per month. Several experts warn that with the current grain deal, exports will take a long time to recover to pre-February levels. In addition, the fighting continues. Shipowners are and will therefore remain very cautious about sending empty ships to Ukraine.
Varying harvest figures
The regional department of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture in the southern province of Krasnodar announced today that the yield of winter grains is higher than last season when a record harvest was harvested. In total, grain growers in Krasnodar have harvested 12,4 million tons of winter grain gross (before drying and cleaning). Of this, 10,7 million tons of winter wheat. An unprecedented yield according to the local department of the ministry, especially given the dry start that was followed by heavy showers with locally heavy hail. The figures from Krasnodar are somewhat remarkable. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture warned last week of reduced grain exports due to disappointing weather conditions and problems with the supply of parts for foreign machines. The forecast of a total grain harvest of 130 million tons was probably too high, the ministry expected. In Krasnodar, mainly winter grains are grown and they are slightly less sensitive to drought than summer grains.
Preliminary yield figures are also trickling in from Europe. The estimates do show large differences between the different regions. A number of sources announced that they expect a lower grain yield for France than last year. The German Farmers' Association announced last week that the wheat harvest there is expected to be 1% larger than last year. Market agency Agrarmarkt Austria (AMA) reports that the corn harvest in Austria, excluding maize, is 3,9% higher compared to the previous season. The higher yield in Austria can partly be attributed to an expansion in the area, but the hectare yields are also good on average. Rain in June was just in time for a good yield according to AMA. The Polish Statistical Office assumes a grain harvest of 26,6 million tons. That is 400.000 or 1% below last year's yield but 500.000 above the five-year average. According to the agency, this gives a somewhat distorted picture. The grain area has increased by approximately 7% compared to last year. The yield per hectare this year is approximately 6% higher than last season. The drought has wreaked havoc south of Europe in Morocco. The Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture announced today that the grain harvest is 67% lower compared to last year at 3,4 million tons. Drought has decimated the harvest in the North African country.