Wheat quotes on both the Matif and the CboT have taken a significant step back in the past trading session. The extra supply of grain from Ukraine is an important factor that is putting pressure on the market. US traders are concerned about US wheat exports.
The September wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday at €313,75 per tonne. That is the lowest level since the end of February. On the CBoT, wheat prices fell 4,2% to $7.31,50 per bushel (€266 per tonne). Corn and soy did not follow the negative mood on the wheat market and closed in positive territory.{{dataviewSnapshot(40_1660918759)}}
The export of grain from Ukraine is currently putting a lot of pressure on the wheat market. 25 ships have now left under the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine. This eases the tension on the international grain market. For the traders at the CBoT, this was topped by disappointing export results. In the week ending August 11, the United States exported 207.200 tons. That is the smallest export since the start of this export season and 46% below the rolling four-week average.
Major shift in forecast
The International Grains Council (IGC) yesterday released the yield forecast for grains. That report was fodder for the bears in the wheat market. The expected wheat harvest has been increased by 8 million tons compared to the July forecast to 778 million tons. The demand for wheat is also higher according to the partnership and has increased by 3 million tons to 783 million tons. This means that wheat consumption remains greater than production and supplies are consumed. The IGC has made significant cuts in corn yield expectations. The condition of the crop in the EU and the US has deteriorated, which means the potential yield is lower. The total yield is estimated at 1.179 million tons. That is a reduction of 10 million tons compared to a month earlier. Supply also exceeds demand on the corn balance sheet, which has been reduced by 5 million tons to 1.197 million tons.