Spring-sown crops such as (grain) maize are having a hard time in Europe. Where the yield of winter cereals was good to very good in many countries, the situation is different for maize, for example. Both silage maize and grain maize result in a considerably lower yield as a result of drought and heat.
The German Raiffeisenverband (DRV) sharply tightened their yield forecast for grain maize last week. DRV now assumes 3,6 million tons of grain corn, which is a decrease of 600.000 tons compared to the previous forecast. The current yield is significantly less than the 4,44 million tons harvested in 2021. An increase in the area by almost 36.000 hectares does not result in more kilos, but rather dampens the decline.
Disappointing silage maize harvest
Not only will the harvest of grain maize be severely disappointing, dairy farmers also have to take into account a smaller silage maize harvest. This is what Guido Seedler, who is responsible for grains within the DBV, says. "We therefore expect that part of the grain corn will eventually be chopped to serve as silage. The expected shortage of grain corn is a major challenge for the animal feed industry."
Remarkably, the total size of the grain harvest in Germany remains almost unchanged, at 42,93 million tons. That is 1,8% more than was harvested in 2021. According to Seedler, this has to do with the area figures, which have been adjusted slightly upwards by the statistics agency Destatis. Seedler notes that the protein levels in the grain this year are lower than average. The biggest plus is the yield of rapeseed. At 4 million tons, this yield is 15% higher than last year. This season the cultivation of rapeseed is off to a less favorable start. Due to the drought, less has been sown. It is expected that rain will not materialize in the coming weeks, which will hinder sowing and initial development.
Priority in transport
The Raiffeisen locations themselves are also affected by the drought. Due to the low water levels, less product can be delivered by ship. Companies are therefore making more use of trucks and railways, but the planning there is already overcrowded. It is therefore increasingly difficult to get raw materials to feed factories in a timely manner. "The German government is hinting that the supply of oil and coal will be given priority within the rail network. We advocate that feed raw materials should also be given that priority status," Seedler said.
The picture in France is not much different from that in Germany. The drought and heat have been the problem there for some time, since this spring. According to the most current figures from FranceAgriMer, only 50% of the corn is in good to very good condition. For comparison, a year ago this was still 91%. It is even the lowest percentage since 2011. Crops are already well ripe, with 44% of maize crops where the dry matter content is already more than 50%.
Drought during flowering
During flowering the weather has been very unfavorable with high temperatures and a lack of precipitation. This also costs the corn crops in Poland a lot of yield. The result can now be seen, the flasks are not filled properly in many places. However, significant regional differences are noticeable. Areas where more rain has fallen, in the north and center, sometimes show good corn crops.
Due to the extreme weather, the EU is heading for its smallest corn harvest since the 2007-2008 season. According to analyst firm Argus media this means that the EU will have to import up to 13 million tonnes of maize from Ukraine to meet its raw material needs. In addition to Germany and France, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria are also harvesting less corn this year. The EU needs a total of 23 million tons of corn, of which Ukraine and Brazil are the largest suppliers. Despite the war, expected yield levels in Ukraine are good and exports are the main problem. Compared to last year, the Ukranian Grain Association expects a corn harvest of 27,3 million tons. That is 4,6% more than was harvested in 2021.