On the wheat market it is again a bit of searching and scanning. Exports from the Black Sea region remain an important factor, but the most recent export figures did not really push the market in any direction. On the American stock exchange, it is mainly maize that is the order of the day. Yields could be significantly lower than what the USDA previously predicted.
Wheat quotes on the international stock exchanges are under slight pressure. At the time of writing this article, the contracts for the 2022 harvest on the Matif show little change compared to the weekend. On the CBoT, wheat contracts are cautiously up by a few tenths of a percent. The soybean quotation is slightly in the negative in the US and is about 0,5% lower. Maize is the biggest riser, the various contracts are in the plus from 1% to 1,5%.
The pressure on the wheat market is partly caused by the export of grain by Ukraine. On Friday, President Zelensky announced that 1 million tons of grain had been exported under the grain deal. According to the president, 44 ships have left for 15 countries. A total of 70 applications have been submitted for ships wishing to load in Ukraine. The goal is to export 3 million tons per month, Zelensky added. The UN coordinator of the grain deal said on Saturday that millions of tons of food from the previous crop still have to be exported. "The grain deal has created a little space, but a lot more grain needs to be exported to make enough room for the new crop," UN coordinator Amir Abdulla said via Reuters news agency.
Tight market
For maize, it is the expected disappointing yields that set the mood. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour paints a less positive picture of the US corn crop than the USDA. Earlier this month, the USDA estimated a US crop of 14.359 million bushels in the Wasde report. In the Crop Tour, the maize yield remains at 13.759 million bushels. That is the smallest harvest since 2019. In the western Midwest, yields are disappointing as growers have to deal with drought. More precipitation fell in the east, but yields are not expected to be sufficient to compensate for the lower yields in the dry regions.
Drought also affects maize yields in Europe. FranceAgriMer reported that the rain that fell in some parts of France earlier this month has brought little relief to areas hit by drought and heatwaves. This creates extra tension in the already tight world market. According to various analysts, that will not change for the foreseeable future. Stocks are relatively tight for wheat, maize and soy and the harvests are not reaching records. The volatility in the grain market therefore does not seem to be over in the coming months.