With the wheat harvest largely over, the focus of market players is shifting more towards export figures. In France, a remarkable amount of wheat was exported in the first months of the grain season. Russia has more trouble exporting wheat. And then the USDA came up with the Crop Progress report.
Wheat prices are cautiously on the rise again. On the Matif, the September wheat contract closed at €336 per tonne. That is €5,75 higher than before the weekend. The September contract on the CBoT closed 4,5% higher at $8,20 per bushel and corn on the US exchange was up 2,2%. Soy was the exception last trading session, closing 4,4% lower.
The French market office Agritel released the yield estimates today. The French soft wheat harvest forecast has been revised upwards to 33,63 million tons. That is 90.000 tons more than in the forecast last month. The total harvest is therefore still below the five-year average. The export of common wheat is going at an unusually high pace, according to Agritel. In July and August 2,5 million tons were exported. This means that approximately a quarter of the common wheat stock available for export has already been exported in two months. On average, 14% of the stock was exported at the end of August. Due to the problems in the Black Sea area, there is extra interest in French wheat, according to Agritel. More than 10 million tons of wheat are available due to the relatively small harvest. According to the market office, the current export rate cannot be maintained for the rest of the season. Furthermore, Agritel expects a very small closing stock at the end of this season.
France continues to head for the smallest corn crop of this century. The maize has suffered greatly from the heat waves and it is the driest year since the start of the measurements. Agritel assumes a total French maize harvest of 10,8 million tons. For the EU as a whole, the forecast is 53,8 million tonnes of maize. That is the smallest harvest in fifteen years.
Black Sea Concerns
Wheat prices in Russia are under pressure. According to the market bureau, the price for Russian wheat loaded in the Black Sea stands at $315 per tonne of free on board (FOB). That's $10 lower than last week. According to Sovecon, the price for Russian direct shipment wheat is at $312 to $318 per tonne, more than $20 lower than last week. Partly due to the progress with the harvest, there is a relatively large supply of wheat. Exports have been somewhat disappointing so far. Last week, Russia exported 660.000 tons of grain, according to Sovecon. The week before, 850.000 tons of wheat were exported.
In the US, the USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report yesterday. The condition of the maize has again been adjusted downwards. 54% of US corn is rated good or excellent. That is 1 percentage point lower than last week. The condition of soy is unchanged from last week with 57% good or excellent. Several analysts were counting on a small write-down in the condition of soy. Half of the spring wheat has now been harvested, according to the USDA. This means that the harvest is 21% behind the five-year average.