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Analysis Grains and Raw Material

Adjustment of wheat harvest in Russia weighs on the market

20 September 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Wheat prices closed lower in the past trading session. Extra supply from Russia is identified as an important cause by experts. Soy and corn took cautious steps up due to setbacks in the US. The news that China thinks soy is too expensive does little to change this.

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Wheat quotes have been under pressure over the past trading session. On the Matif, the December contract lost €8, closing at €325,75 per tonne. On the CBoT, the wheat contract fell 3,4% to $8.30,50 per bushel. The corn quotation remains virtually unchanged on the American stock exchange. Soy closed 0,8% higher on the CBoT.

The supply of wheat from Russia put pressure on the price. Market bureau IKAR increased the Russian wheat harvest by 2 million tons to a total harvest of 99 million tons. thus, the world's largest wheat exporter would potentially have 47,5 million tons of wheat available for export. American wheat is also less competitive on the world market because of the high dollar exchange rate. The aggressive monetary policy of the US central bank does not help, according to analysts.

In Ukraine, grain sowing is progressing steadily. The Ministry of Agriculture announced today that about 9%, or 364.000 hectares, of the planned area of ​​winter wheat has been sown in the areas under government control. About 5% of winter barley is in the ground and 15.300 hectares, 18% of the planned area, of rye have been sown. Rapeseed is almost all sown, according to the ministry. In total, 948.000 hectares of rapeseed have been sown, which is 98% of the planned area.

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The increase in corn and soybean on the CBoT is partly due to the adjustment in the Crop Progress report from the US Department of Agriculture, according to experts. 7% of the corn in the US has been harvested. This means that the harvest is slightly behind the five-year average, which currently stands at 8%. Of the maize area, 52% is given the status good or excellent. That is a decrease of 1% from the previous edition of the report. 3% of the soy acreage has been harvested. That is 2% less than the five-year average. As with corn, the USDA has also lowered the condition of the crop here. Of the total acreage, 55% is given the status good or excellent, also 1% lower compared to last week. The spring wheat harvest is almost complete with 94% of the area being threshed. That is equal to the five-year average. The first winter wheat is already up in the US again. 2% of the acreage is above and that is in line with the five-year average.

China imported considerably less soy in August. High prices on the world market put a brake on the demand for oilseeds. Total soybean imports decreased by 25% compared to the same month a year earlier to 7,17 million tons. That is the lowest import for August since 2014. China imported about a third less soy from Brazil, the largest supplier. More soy was imported from the US by China. In addition, China also imported 350.342 and 197.770 tons of soybean from Uruguay and Argentina, respectively, last month. Last August, no soy was imported from these countries.

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