Grain quotes have been under slight pressure over the past trading session. Especially the wheat price had to lose. This is partly due to a large Russian harvest. This has already been stated by various market offices and was confirmed again yesterday by the JRC Institute. In addition, the market is monitoring crop progress in the US and analysts are working on winter wheat acreage for the 2023 harvest.
The December wheat contract closed yesterday (Monday 26 September) €2 lower at €344,25 per tonne. Grain prices were also under some pressure on the CBoT. Wheat closed at $8,58 per bushel on the US stock exchange. That is 2,6% lower compared to the previous closing price. Corn lost 1,6% and soy 1% on the CBoT last trading session
Concerns about economic development, a large wheat harvest in Russia and, specifically for the American market, the expensive dollar weighed on grain prices. After various market agencies, the JRC Institute of the European Commission also published figures on the Russian grain harvest yesterday. Russia has also threshed well, according to the JRC. The total Russian wheat harvest is estimated by the JRC at 95 million tons. In the previous estimate in June, the JRC assumed a wheat harvest of 88,8 million tons. The five-year average for Russia stands at 79,7 million tons and last season Russia harvested 76,2 million tons. The wheat harvest is therefore 19% above the five-year average and a whopping 25% larger harvest than last season. The Russian barley harvest is also considerably higher at 21,7 tonnes, but less extreme than wheat. The total barley harvest in Russia is therefore 9% higher compared to the five-year average and 18% larger than last year.
In the US, the corn and soy harvest is getting off to a somewhat slow start this season. 12% of the corn acreage has been threshed, according to the USDA's Crop Progress report. The five-year average for this time is 14%. 8% of the soy has been harvested compared to 13% in the five-year average for this period. Summer wheat is 96% harvested according to the USDA. That is 1% lower than the five-year average. Winter wheat sowing is narrowly ahead of the five-year average with 31% now sown compared to 30% in the five-year average. 9% of wheat in the US is already above. The five-year average is 6%.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is not confident that the grain deal will last. The country has asked the EU to invest in emergency roads to keep grain exports going when the Black Sea ports have to be closed again. Ukraine wants to set up five grain terminals along the border with the EU. In addition, Ukraine would also like to build a pipeline to export sunflower oil. So far, 231 ships carrying a total of 5,3 million tons of grain and other agricultural products have left Ukrainian ports under the grain deal. Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine exported up to 6 million tons per month. Farmers in Ukraine are also making progress with sowing wheat. The figure from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that approximately 622.000 hectares, or 16% of the planned area of winter wheat, has been sown.