The USDA, the United States Department of Agriculture, released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Wednesday evening, October 12. Global ending stocks of wheat and corn have been estimated lower by the USDA. The closing stock of soy has increased. In general, the estimates are reasonably in line with expectations.
For the worldwide wheat harvest, production, use, export and stocks have been adjusted downwards. The world stock is 1,9 million tons lower and is estimated at 1,058 billion tons. Global consumption has been reduced by 900.000 tons to 790,2 million tons. Less wheat is used for consumption and sowing, compensating for the increasing use of wheat as animal feed. Global exports have been reduced by 600.000 tons to 208.3 million tons. Below the line, the closing stock is 1,03 million tons lower, partly due to lower production in the US.
In the US, production has been reduced by 3,62 million tons, exports are also lower, at 1,36 million tons. This amounts to 21,09 million tons, the lowest level since 1971/1972. Also 280.000 tons more wheat is imported. The closing stock is 920.000 tons lower, which amounts to 15,68 million tons as the lowest closing stock since the 2007/2008 season. Among other large wheat exporters, it is noticeable that Argentina's production has been adjusted downwards. First it stood at 19 million tons of wheat, for October the USDA estimates that Argentina can produce 17,5 million wheat. As a result, the country's exports have fallen by 1 million tons.
The European Union is the biggest climber on the list. Production there is 2,65 million tons higher than in the September report and comes out at 134,8 million tons. Germany and Poland in particular expect to harvest more grain. The production growth there is not enough to compensate for the lower figures from Argentina and the US. Exports in Europe are growing by 1,5 million tons and the closing stock by 400.000 tons. The wheat figures for Russia and Ukraine are the same as in September. Finally, it is noticeable that Brazil will import less wheat and possibly export more wheat because the country expects a larger wheat harvest.
Corn
Global maize production is estimated to be 3,84 million tons lower and now amounts to 1,17 billion tons. This will be at the expense of exports, which are 540.000 tons lower and are now estimated at 183,04 million tons. The closing stock is 3.35 million tonnes lower and amounts to 301,19 million tonnes.
For the US, inventory, production, export and closing inventory are all lower than in September. US corn production is estimated at 352,95 million tons, 1,24 million tons less. The total maize stock amounts to 389,20 million tons, 4,82 million tons lower. Exports are estimated to be 3,18 million tons lower. The closing stock is estimated at 29,77 million tons.
In the rest of the world, maize production is also estimated to be lower. Expected production has been reduced in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Serbia and France. EU-wide maize production has been reduced by 2,6 million tonnes. Ukrainian maize exports are 2,5 million tons higher, despite the fact that their own production has remained the same. India also exports more maize.
For the 2022/23 season, the maize imports from Iran, Japan and Vietnam have been revised downwards, but increased for the EU and the US.
Soybeans
Global soybean production, export and final inventory has increased. Production has been adjusted to 390,99 million tons, an increase of 1,22 million tons. The export has increased to 168,84 million tons, 960.000 tons higher and the closing stock comes to 100,52 million. An increase of 1,6 million tons.
US soybean production has been cut to 117,38 million tons. this is mainly because the yield per hectare has also been reduced. Exports are 1,08 million tons lower and amount to 55,66 million tons. The closing stock remains the same at 5,44 million tons. The expected soybean harvest in Brazil has increased by 3 million tons to 152 million tons, which is in line with CONAB's expectations. The good export figures from Argentina and Brazil more than offset the lower exports from America and Paraguay. Chinese soy imports have been increased by 1 million tons to 98 million tons.
Futures
The December wheat contract on the CBOT opened the day at $9,01 per bushel and is lower at $8,84 per bushel at the time of writing. The December corn contract on the same exchange opened at $6,93 per bushel and currently stands at approximately $6,93 per bushel. The November soybean contract appears to be on the rise, opening at $13,67 per bushel and standing at $13,98 at the time of writing.
The Matif was still open for half an hour after the report was published. During that time, the price of the December wheat contract fell from €356 per tonne to €353 per tonne. The November corn contract remained unchanged.