Clearly more interest in wheat and barley

Seed suppliers do not dare to substantiate with hard figures how much percentage is already in the ground. The delivery of seed is running very smoothly, but it is difficult to say how much of it has now been sown. More interest in grain cultivation will ultimately result in a few percent extra acreage, insiders think.

Up to 5% more area
"Based on the sales of the seed, the area in our working area will expand by about 5%," thinks Jurriaan Visser, grains manager at CZAV. Aart den Bakker from Agrifirm also speaks of 'a few percent'. A nice autumn (so far) for sowing helps to choose grain now. But the price level, mainly of wheat, is the biggest motivation to sow more, the respondents say unanimously.

This year the wheat area totaled 124.330 hectares according to CBS figures. That is the largest area since 2018 and 4% more than was grown the year before. Winter barley also increased slightly in popularity last season. The area exceeded 10.000 hectares for the first time in three years. An expansion of 5% means 113.736 hectares of winter wheat. That area has not been seen since 2015. Compared to the five-year average (103.282 hectares), this is even 10% more. The area expansion cannot be called truly shocking. In 2010, 135.000 hectares of wheat were still grown in the Netherlands, although winter barley cultivation was less than 5.000 hectares at the time.

Wheat instead of onions
With over 27.000 hectares, the most winter wheat is grown in Zeeland, followed by Groningen with 24.700 hectares. A relatively large area expansion for grain is expected in Zeeland in particular. There is not one demonstrable crop that is suffering from this, Jurriaan Visser thinks. "Some arable farmers are reducing or stopping onions, but it is mainly small crops where the hectares come from. Yet we are also seeing more interest in leguminous crops. This has to do with the new CAP and the nitrate directive. Unfortunately, there is Much is still unclear and the situation per company can vary considerably."

Elsewhere in the Netherlands, sugar beet cultivation is mainly mentioned as having to make room for grain. A sum of the balance and the benefits for the soil, especially on clay soil, is the cause of this. "That also applies to chicory, for example," says Carl Pijls from Agrea in Limburg. "The contracts for next season will be paid significantly better, but that was also desperately needed. We also see that arable farmers are growing less maize. Due to the reduction in livestock farming, there is less demand for this. Only on the poorer lands it is still possible to ( grain) corn is chosen instead of grain, although the corn must also be irrigated for a reasonable harvest."

Sow timely
"Just like last autumn, the conditions for sowing are now ideal," notes Den Bakker. "Last year, the early sown plots did well, which gives confidence. Moreover, the harvest is on time in many places, which also leaves room for sowing. In our working areas, almost all of the winter barley has now been sown and wheat sowing is in full swing. " Visser notices in the southwest that arable farmers are starting to sow seeds earlier and earlier. "In the past, this was only from mid-October. Now it is two weeks earlier. While in the past the potatoes had to be inside first, today they are increasingly sown during harvesting. The experiences with sowing on time (early October ) are good."

The contract for September 2023 delivery on the Matif is still showing an upward trend. On Tuesday, October 11, the highest price since June 15 was reached at €338,25 per tonne. Later in the week the race had to leave a gap again. In practice, a difference of €20 to €25 per ton is charged for those who want to sell the 2023 harvest before the harvest. This means that prices around €300 per tonne are feasible. This is also evident from transactions completed in the DCA Transaction App.

Wheat price far above average
Arable farmers are not yet lining up to sell wheat or barley, but there is more interest. Pijls is surprised that more farmers do not want to sell part of their harvest. "Selling now helps when purchasing expensive fertilizer and other inputs. We notice a wait-and-see attitude, growers are of course hoping for more." Agrifirm sees more entrepreneurs who are already committing part of their volume. Visser notes that CZAV uses this option on a limited scale. The average price of the Matif over the past five years is €225,54 per tonne. This is mainly due to the price increase since the summer of 2021 and after the Ukrainian invasion. Before that, the average price level was €193,76 per tonne. We now know that a wheat price of €400 or more is possible, but the chance of this is relatively small.