There was little movement in grain prices during the last trading session. Bargain hunters are locking in, according to analysts, but the supply of relatively cheap wheat from Russia and the large harvest in Australia keep the lid on the pan. The USDA's Wasde report that will be published tonight (Dutch time) may change that.
The December wheat contract on the Matif closed €1 higher yesterday at €308 per tonne. The March contact also recorded a tiny plus of €0,25 to close at €307,25 per tonne. On the CBoT, the March wheat contract gave up slightly to close 0,4% lower at 7.46½ per bushel. Corn closed 0,2% higher in Chicago and soy was the biggest gainer at 1% to 14,48¼ per bushel.
The wheat quotation seems to have found a bottom in the market for the time being and is now stabilizing. Impulses to provide direction to the market are temporarily lacking. The information about a wider supply of wheat has now been incorporated into the price. Brazilian statistics agency Conab has revised its forecast for the wheat harvest upwards to 9,55 million tons. In the November estimate, Conab expected 9,50 million tons and the 2021 harvest was 7,68 million tons. The total grain harvest in Brazil for this season is estimated at 312,2 million tons. That is 15% above last year's harvest, but slightly below Conab's November forecast, which predicted a harvest of 313,04 million tons. Soy is the largest crop in Brazil and its yield is estimated at 153,48 million tons. That is 22,2% more compared to last season. The corn harvest is estimated at 125,83 million tons, an increase of 11,2% compared to last season.
Export
The relatively good harvest forecasts have only had a limited impact on the CBoT prices. Soy in particular had the wind at its back due to better than expected export figures from the US. Trade estimates ranged from exports of 600.000 to 1,45 million tonnes for the week ending December 1. Total exports amounted to 1,746 million tons, according to USDA figures published on Thursday. Corn and wheat exports were within the range expected by the trade. Complaints about American wheat exports continue to be poor.
The USDA will release the Wasde report later today. According to analysts, this also plays a role in the moderate mood in the grain trade. Prices are at a relatively low level if you compare them with recent months. The chance that a report that is neutral or even somewhat bearish in tone will depress the market much further is not considered very great by some experts.
View the overview of grain prices and the technical analysis here.