Impulses are lacking to get the grain market moving. Precipitation in the US and a large harvest in the UK put some pressure on the market last trading session. Lower yield forecasts in Argentina and healthy demand for French wheat meant that the decline was limited.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed €3 lower yesterday at €302,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 0,2% lower at $7.49¼ per bushel. Corn lost 0,4% to close at $6.50½ per bushel. Soya showed a cautious increase and increased by 0,2%.
According to analysts, the wheat market was somewhat under pressure due to snow in parts of the prairies in America. The wheat has suffered from drought since sowing and has therefore developed only moderately. The snow replenishes the moisture in the soil and it is expected that the crop will benefit from this in the spring. The United Kingdom harvested a large wheat harvest last summer. At least that is what the preliminary figures from the Ministry of Agriculture show. The total wheat harvest for the UK is 15,5 million tonnes. That is an increase of 11% compared to last season. The larger harvest is mainly due to higher yields per hectare, namely 9,9% higher according to the ministry. The rapeseed harvest has increased by 39% to 1,4 million tons. The area has grown by 18% compared to last season and the yield per hectare was 17% higher. The UK barley harvest reached 7,4 million tonnes, an increase of 6,1%. Yields of wheat, barley and oilseed rape in the UK have all risen sharply in 2022 and are now just below the highest yields in the last 2022 years, according to the ministry. The French market agency FranceAgriMer reported on Wednesday that exports of French soft wheat to countries outside the EU for the 23/10,3 season are likely to amount to 10 million tons. A month earlier, FranceAgriMer expected exports of XNUMX million tons. There is good demand for wheat, especially from Morocco and China, according to the market agency.
Halving the wheat harvest in Argentina
In Argentina, the Rosario grain exchange has again revised downwards its wheat yield forecast. Compared to the previous forecast, the yield has fallen by 3% from 11,8 million tons to 11,5 million tons of wheat. In May, the Rossario stock exchange expected a harvest of 19 million tons and last season Argentina harvested a record harvest of 23 million tons. Drought and frost late in the season cost the Argentines yield. The drought also hinders farmers from sowing soy. According to the exchange, 49% of the planned area is in the ground compared to 65% at this time a year earlier. Rosario calculates a soy area of 17,1 million tons. Due to the drought, that area will probably be lower. Maize sowing is also lagging behind in Argentina with 47% of the area now sown compared to 66% last season. The Rosario stock exchange has left its corn and soybean yield forecast unchanged at 56 and 48 million tons respectively.
View the overview of grain prices and the technical analysis here.